n September 22, 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income for the second quarter of 2011. Connecticut’s (CT), current dollar, seasonally adjusted quarterly personal income (QPI) was $206.408 billion for the second quarter of 2011 (2011Q2). This was up by $2.522 billion, or 1.24% from 2011Q1, and up by $9.694 billion, or 4.93% from 2010Q2. The second quarter QPI number had been revised downward by $1.632 billion to $203.886 billion from the initial estimate of $205.518 billion published in the June 2011 release. [ Download article only ]

he recession of the late 2000’s is the worst to hit the United States since the depression of the 1930’s. Nineteen months after the official completion of Connecticut’s recession, the unemployment rate is still stubbornly stuck around 9%. Based on data from the Current Employment Survey (CES), it is estimated about 119,000 jobs were lost in Connecticut through December 2009. Connecticut gained 24,300 jobs from January 2010, the end of Connecticut’s recession, to January 2011. However, from January 2011 to July 2011, only about 8,500 jobs have been created. At the current level of job growth, it will take many years to employ those laid off by the recession. [ Download article only ]

This a partial reprint of “Following Connecticut’s Unemployment Insurance Claimants Through the Recession,” by Manisha Srivastava, Connecticut Department of Labor, October 2011. For the full report, including an analysis on the demographics of current claimants, download: http://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/pubs/ConnecticutUIClaimants.pdf

ata from the U.S. Census Bureau refute the conventional wisdom that young people are leaving Connecticut in droves and the population of our cities is in decline. One example of popular perceptions comes from the “2011 Survey of Connecticut Business” released in early September by BlumShapiro and CBIA which reported “An overwhelming majority of respondents (85%) worry about the state’s slow population growth and out-migration of 21-to-45 year-olds.” Similarly, when population estimates from the 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) were released, a press release was headlined “Connecticut Still at Bottom in Attracting, Keeping 25-34-Year-Olds.” In fact, the 2010 U.S. Census confirms that Ct’s population is aging, but that the situation is not as dire or dramatic as perceptions would suggest. [ Download article only ]  

mployment in Connecticut covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) decreased by 1.2 percent during 2010, according to preliminary figures that recently became available through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. While 2010 recorded the second consecutive drop in annual average employment, the rate of decline was less than in 2009 when covered employment dropped by 4.3 percent. Total private industry employment, constituting 84.8 percent of the State’s employment total, decreased by 1.1 percent, while government employment fell by 1.7 percent. [ Download article only ]  

ousing market activity is one of the barometers of the health of the state and national economies. The anemic housing permit growth, weak home price increases, and fewer residential real estate transactions in 2010 - when coupled with high unemployment, a jobless economic recovery and a rising foreclosure rate - suggest that the state’s housing doldrums may continue. This article examines the housing market from several perspectives. [ Download article only ]  

Youth Employment in Connecticut  [ Download July 2011 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Matthew Krzyzek, CCT Economist, DOL, Matthew.Krzyzek@ct.gov

or many, summer is a time for relaxation. The season is typified by sunny weather, family vacations, barbeques and trips to the beach. However, the season also represents a young workers initiation into the labor force. Be it work as a camp counselor, lifeguard, salesperson or waitress, those summer jobs teach youths valuable skills they will carry with them onto enhanced employment opportunities later in life. Unfortunately, for a growing number of American youths, these jobs are increasingly hard to find. [ Download article only ]  

n a climate of fiscal and budgetary challenges, it is imperative to recognize that export growth is a vehicle to achieve the twin goals of job creation and economic recovery. Exports are an engine of growth and an important contributor to gross domestic product. In Connecticut, commodity exports represent approximately 7% of the gross state product (state GDP). Exports sustain and create jobs and have a multiplier effect on the economy. Given the fact that 95% of the world’s consumers live outside the U.S., it makes sense to pursue foreign market opportunities and reach those consumers, generate new business, create jobs and spur economic growth and recovery. Exports are critical for business and economic success. [ Download article only ]  

Manufacturing Isn't Dead: It Doesn't Even Look That Way!   [ Download May 2011 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Patrick J. Flaherty, Economist, DOL, Patrick.Flaherty@ct.gov

ome have erroneously declared manufacturing “dead,” particularly in a state like Connecticut that has seen manufacturing’s share of total employment fall nearly in half in the past twenty years. But this pronouncement is not just “premature” (to quote Mark Twain) but completely unwarranted. While a smaller share of total employment, manufacturing is and will continue to be a vital component of Connecticut’s economy and labor market, and Connecticut will remain a place where manufacturers can grow and prosper. [ Download article only ]  

Equal Pay Day” takes place on a Tuesday in April (April 12th this year), symbolizing how far into the workweek women must work to earn what men earned the previous week. The gender wage gap is calculated by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), and is based on data collected through surveys. This article takes a new approach to understanding the gender wage gap using wage records from Connecticut’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) program. The gender wage gap is analyzed by age group and in further detail for select industries, with interesting implications for policy makers.

As of 2009, the national ratio of women’s to men’s median annual earnings for full-time year-round workers was 0.77. Though the gender wage gap decreased since it was first tracked, the rate of decline has plateaued in recent years. The gender wage gap dropped 12.4 cents between 1981 and 1990, 3.8 cents between 1991 and 2000, and 0.7 cents between 2001 and 2009. The gender wage gap is deeper in Connecticut, where women earn 75 cents for every dollar earned by men. [ Download article only ]  

he Great Recession II that began in March 2008 has ended in January 2010 for Connecticut, as measured by the total nonfarm employment. The newly revised seasonally adjusted employment data showed January 2010 to be the bottom of this awful economic downturn, one month later than originally anticipated. Over the 22 months of the recession, nearly 119,200 jobs were lost, about 20,000 more than originally estimated last March (see “Connecticut Recession to End in December 2009?” Connecticut Economic Digest, March 2010).

Though this downturn lasted far less than the 38 months in the July 2000-Sept 2003 recession and the 46 months in 1989-1992’s Great Recession, the severity of employment drop is astounding. The 7.0% job loss in the March 2008-January 2010 recession was more drastic than 2000-2003’s 3.7%, though not as severe as the 9.3% decrease in the February 1989-December 1992 downturn, which lasted the longest at 46 months, and cost 157,000 jobs. Moreover, when the employment losses through 22 months into recession were compared, the latest recession was even deeper than the 1989-1992 one (-7.0% vs. –5.3%). In fact, this recession experienced the worst job loss since the 1943-45 downturn (-9.5%). [ Download article only ]

labor market area is defined as an economically integrated geographic area within which individuals can reside and find employment within a reasonable distance or can readily change employment without changing their place of residence. Connecticut has nine labor market areas, named for the major cities that serve as their hubs. The areas are Bridgeport-Stamford, Danbury, Enfield, Hartford, New Haven, Norwich-New London, Torrington, Waterbury and Willimantic-Danielson.

The Danbury Labor Market Area (LMA) consists of the western Connecticut towns of Sherman, New Fairfield, Danbury, Bethel, Brookfield, Bridgewater and New Milford. It has the fourth smallest labor force out of Connecticut’s nine labor market areas. These seven towns hold a combined population of 158,632 residents and the LMA has a labor force of 92,483. [ Download article only ]  

he Nation. We expect the modest expansion of the U.S. economy that began in the third quarter of 2009 will continue in 2011. The outlook for continued recovery from the longest recession since the 1930s that began in December 2007 and lasted 18 months is tempered by harsh realities - notably, unacceptably high unemployment and a weak housing market. Yet, private sector employment increased in each month last year, totaling 1.1 million jobs through October 2010. Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 or 4.1% above the September 2009 rate of 586,000. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 2.8% each quarter since the Q3-2009 expansion began. [ Download article only ]  

he labor market is dynamic. Even during the worst months of the recession, when nationally jobs on net were declining by approximately 800,000 per month, there were still approximately four million new hires. Of course, there were even more separations, which is why total employment declined on net – but the number of separations was actually lower during the recession than during the previous period of job growth. In times of strong growth, approximately five million workers lose or leave their jobs every month. [ Download article only ]  

Connecticut GDP Declines in 2009 [ Download December 2010 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Lincoln S. Dyer, Economist, DOL, Lincoln.Dyer@ct.gov

onnecticut’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the most comprehensive measure of total economic activity or value added in the state, was down as expected in 2009. On both a real (chained 2005 dollars) and current dollar basis, Connecticut GDP declined. The decrease in real CT GDP, which considers inflation’s impact, was -3.1%, while the drop in current dollar GDP fell 1.2% from 2008 estimates.* Connecticut’s real GDP was estimated at $205.7 billion and current dollar value GDP was calculated at $227.4 billion. [ Download article only ]  

fter much political debate, Congress approved extending unemployment insurance benefits for the long-term unemployed until November 30, 2010. The extended Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program is 100% federally funded. This is in contrast to the regular Unemployment Compensation (UC) program that is fully State funded. The EUC program is a newly created program as of June 30, 2008 in response to the current financial crisis. It is the first time in the 75-year history of UC that benefits have been extended for up to 99 weeks.

The UC program provides unemployment compensation for a maximum of 26 weeks to eligible claimants. In the event of high unemployment rates a program called Extended Benefits (EB) triggers on, which extends unemployment compensation for another 13 to 20 weeks depending on the unemployment rate. Each week a federally mandated formula is used to calculate whether the current economic conditions warrant a State trigger onto EB. EB is 50% state funded and 50% federally funded. Before this current recession, the last time Connecticut entered onto EB status was in early 1981. [ Download article only ] 

harmacists have long played an important role in the healthcare industry. While physicians diagnose a patient’s ailments and prescribe medicine to treat it, pharmacists are responsible for distributing that medicine in a safe and accurate manner. As their careers evolve, pharmacists have been expanding their duties. With the increases in job responsibilities and the strong reliance the healthcare industry has on pharmacists, the job outlook remains strong. [ Download article only ] 

West Hartford: One of the Ten Best Cities in the Country [ Download October 2010 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Matthew Krzyzek, CCT Economist, DOL, Matthew.Krzyzek@ct.gov

ncorporated on May 3rd 1854, West Hartford is a town of 63,908 and encompasses 22.4 square miles, situated exactly 98 miles from both Boston and New York City. Quiet suburban neighborhoods of early-mid twentieth century colonial style single-family homes typify much of the town. West Hartford Center, a thriving downtown commercial district, has in recent years become a popular location for commerce and recreation in central Connecticut. An extensive network of town parks, pools, theatre groups, golf courses and a skating rink helps to ensure the availability of year-round recreation and a high quality of life. [ Download article only ] 

oncern about the environment, unstable world energy markets, a desire to find new and creative ways to grow the economy, and significant public investment have kept interest high in the definition of “green jobs.” Approximately $60 billion of the $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress in 2009 was devoted to green activities. Data available on the Governor’s website show over $200 million in grants to state agencies and another $200 million in tax credits and grants to other entities in Connecticut in the areas of energy and the environment from the stimulus legislation.

However, a definitive definition of “green jobs” remains elusive. As noted by the Federal Register on the March 16, 2010, “There is no widely accepted standard definition of ‘green jobs.’” Fortunately, the lack of a consensus definition has not prevented continued research efforts in this area, the development of policies to promote the green economy, nor the efforts of those working to grow the economy in a sustainable way. Indeed the work to define green jobs can provide insight into this set of economic activities. [ Download article only ] 

he recessionary impacts on Connecticut’s economy that began being felt during the second half of 2008 took full effect in 2009. Connecticut’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) covered employment dropped 4.3 percent during 2009 (Table, pp. 2-3). Records going back as far as 1969 show 2009’s percentage decline was the second largest only behind the 5 percent drop that occurred during 1991.

Another indicator of the economic woes the State faced in 2009 was that the average annual wage of Connecticut workers ($57,755) decreased from the previous year ($58,334). A review of data dating back as far as 1969 shows that this was only the second time this anomaly has occurred. The only other year that annual pay per employee decreased was 2002. [ Download article only ] 

he Connecticut and U.S. economies experienced financial turmoil that began in the fall of 2008 and continued into the Great Recession of 2009. Nearly all sectors felt the adverse impacts of the recession, which resulted in higher unemployment, declining personal income and corporate revenues and weakened consumer confidence. The housing sector is a major contributor to the economic turmoil in 2009, as this analysis of the state’s residential permit activities,home prices and foreclosures will clearly show. [ Download article only ] 

CT Personal Income Pulls Through in First Quarter [ Download July 2010 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Lincoln S. Dyer, Economist, DOL Lincoln.Dyer@ct.gov and Matthew Krzyzek, CCT Economist, DOL, Matthew.Krzyzek@ct.gov

onnecticut personal income growth at 0.6% trailed national personal income growth of 0.9% and New England income growth of 0.8% in the first quarter of 2010. Personal income of $193.037 billion (current dollars, quarterly annualized rate) was the second consecutive quarterly increase, after increasing 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Comparable and adjacent states like New York (0.9%), New Jersey (0.8%), Massachusetts (0.7%), Maryland (0.8%), Pennsylvania (0.8%) and Rhode Island (0.9%) all experienced slightly faster growth than Connecticut during the first quarter. Connecticut ranked 44th by state, in the lowest quintile, in this quarter’s personal income growth. [ Download article only ] 

n May 6, 2010, the Dow plunged nearly 1,000 points until recovering to close down 347.80 (-3.20%) points, an unpleasant reminder of 2008. Despite the infamous "fat finger" glitch and model-driven threshold selling, the underlying driver of the market's gyrations was the sovereign debt crisis centered on Greece. It is a stark reminder that the world's financial system is still very fragile. On the other hand, the U.S. jobs report for April 2010, which came out the next day, showed that the national economy had added 290,000 jobs in April the best monthly performance in four years. These two events highlight the strong crosscurrents that are pulling the economy, both up and down at the same time, as this apparent turning point proceeds.  [ Download article only ] 

here are two sets of objectives addressed by the unemployment insurance system. The primary objectives are aimed directly at providing financial help to workers during temporary periods of involuntary unemployment, thereby reducing the economic insecurity faced by individuals and their families. The secondary objectives are to promote economic stability and efficiency. The focus of this article is on the role of unemployment insurance (UI) as an automatic stabilizer for the economy, to dampen the amplitude of the business cycle. By design, automatic stabilizers dampen fluctuations in economic activity as those fluctuations occur. Unemployment insurance works by putting a floor under the fall in consumers’ disposable income. It provides eligible unemployed workers with temporary benefit payments, thereby cushioning their decline in disposable personal income.  [ Download article only ] 

uring his January 2010 State of the Union address, President Obama announced a goal of doubling U.S. exports over the next five years. To reach this goal, the President unveiled a National Export Initiative (NEI) that focuses on three key areas: (1) expanding trade advocacy and educating companies about overseas market opportunities; (2) improving businesses’ access to credit and (3) enforcing international trade laws and removing unfair tariff and non-tariff barriers that prevent U.S. companies from entering foreign markets. [ Download article only ] 

U.S. Census Brings Temporary Federal Jobs [ Download April 2010 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Lincoln S. Dyer, Economist, DOL Lincoln.Dyer@ct.gov

y now most Connecticut households have received their 2010 Census forms. Advanced notifications were sent out in early March, followed soon after by the official 2010 Census forms. The 2010 Census forms were projected to arrive at U.S. residences in late March, to be completed and customarily returned in April. April 1st is National Census Day, and some newly hired census takers were expected to start late on March 31st with a rural canvassing and an urban homeless headcount campaign. Then a labor-intensive address follow-up and localized information drive is normally planned for May through July. By mid-summer, the short-term local economic impacts of the Census will be all but over. An evaluation of federal government civilian employment for Connecticut over the last four decades shows the U.S. Census employment buildup that occurs once every ten years in the state seems to follow this basic pattern. [ Download article only ] 

he Great Recession II that began in March 2008 may finally be over for Connecticut. The newly revised nonfarm employment data appears to show December 2009 to be the bottom of this treacherous economic downturn. While we added 2,300 jobs in January, and need to see how the next several months will pan out, it appears that our State’s economy has begun to rebound. Connecticut’s year-over-year percent changes in employment began to decline at a slower rate starting in September 2009, and recovery in terms of output has already begun nationally. The State’s average weekly initial claims data peaked in March 2009 and has been trending down. The stock market also bottomed out in March last year and corporate profits have rebounded. Even last year’s employment trend in the Connecticut employment services industry, a leading indicator of our State’s total nonfarm employment, appears to have bottomed out. However, while the prospects of employment dropping below December 2009’s level is not anticipated, the uncertain nature of the economy warrants a cautious approach, as both the national and Connecticut’s recovery remain tenuous at best. [ Download article only ] 

New Hours and Earnings Data Available [ Download March 2010 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Lincoln S. Dyer, Economist, DOL Lincoln.Dyer@ct.gov

fter three years of exploratory development at the Office of Research, real-time monthly hours and earnings estimates for all private industries in the state and the six largest Connecticut labor market areas have been formally introduced. These newly available All Employee Hours and Earnings series from the employer payroll survey include the average hourly earnings, the average weekly hours employed, and the total average weekly earnings for most of Connecticut’s private sector nonfarm workforce. [ Download article only ] 

everal media stories have reported that “Connecticut’s job growth ranks dead last in the nation.” The truth of this statement depends on the answer to the question, “since when?” For example, if the period used to calculate job growth is February 1989 to December 2009 then the statement is true. Payroll employment in Connecticut is down more than 3.5% from where it was more than 20 years ago, giving us the worst job performance in the country. On this measure, Connecticut is below even Michigan (down about 1.4%) and Rhode Island (down 2.1%) with the rest of the nation showing gains. [ Download article only ] 

Measures of Labor Underutilization [ Download February 2010 CT Economic Digest PDF ]
By Salvatore DiPillo, Associate Research Analyst, DOL Salvatore.DiPillo@ct.gov

n the November 2009 issue of the Digest we began publishing for Connecticut, in addition to the official unemployment rate, the most comprehensive measure of labor underutilization. Referred to as the “U-6” by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which sets the definition of the labor force, employment and unemployment and the methodologies for measuring these, it is just one of six measures of unemployment for the nation and the states. [ Download article only ] 

he Nation. In 2010, the U.S. economy will begin recovering from the current severe recession that began in December 2007. This outlook is supported by historic experience and recent positive developments. Since World War II, the average length of U.S. recessions has been 10.5 months with the longest lasting 16 months. The current recession is already longer and some observers consider it to have ended in the third quarter of 2009 (Q3-2009). They note that quarter-over-quarter real gross domestic product (RGDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% from Q2-2009 according to the revised estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In Q2-2009, RGDP declined by 0.7%, moderating from Q1-2009 when RGDP declined by 6.4%. [ Download article only ]