onnecticut exports grew for the third consecutive year in 2023. Commodity exports increased 3.13% over 2022, totaling over $15.82 billion. More Connecticut companies are exporting as well. The most recent data indicates that 4,761 companies exported from Connecticut in 2021, up from 4,606 companies in 2020. 89% of these companies were small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with fewer than 500 employees. According to the most recent data, approximately 50,705 U.S. jobs were supported by Connecticut exports.

Connecticut Partner Countries
In 2023, the state's top ten commodity export destinations were Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Mexico, France, China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan. Among the top ten destinations, except for the U.K., Mexico, and France, all experienced export growth. Exports to the U.K. dropped most significantly, down 19.59% over 2022.

In 2023, there were decreases in many of the top ten Connecticut export commodity sectors to the United Kingdom, the largest being in the aircraft, spacecraft, and parts sector. A potential reason for this is continued regulatory challenges of Brexit and customs barriers. Higher inflation and rising energy prices in the United Kingdom have also shifted consumer goods spending. [ read more ]

Connecticut's Population Gains
By Patrick.Flaherty, Director of Research, Department of Labor

he latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Connecticut's population increased by 8,470 in 2023 with births outnumbering deaths by 2,115 and net migration from other states and countries totaling 6,248. While it will be some months before a breakdown by state and age will be available for 2023, the available data through 2022 show encouraging signs for Connecticut. [ read more ]

onnecticut employment continued to grow for the third year in a row, nearly completely recovering to the pre-pandemic levels in 2023. (The January 2024 jobs numbers, released in March, show jobs have more than fully recovered from pandemic losses.) The revised annual average total nonfarm employment rose 1.6% to a level of 1,694,200 in 2023. Correspondingly, last year's annual average unemployment rate dropped further to 3.8% from 4.1% in 2022. Overall, the 2023 economy continued to recover moderately as per the annual diffusion index.

Nonfarm Employment
After the latest annual revision (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data), in 2023 Connecticut regained 26,100 jobs (1.6%), fewer than the gain of 51,800 jobs (3.2%) in 2022. In the nation employment rose 2.3% in 2023, after having increased 4.3% in 2022.

As shown in Chart 1, most of Connecticut's industry sectors continued to add jobs last year. Eight of eleven major industry sectors have gained employment over the year, while three shed jobs. The biggest job growth occurred in education and health services (13,200, +3.9%), and leisure and hospitality (4,200, +2.8%). However, information (-300, -1.0%), professional and business services (-900, -0.4%), and financial activities (-200, -0.2%) posted slight declines in employment in 2023. [ read more ]  

onnecticut lost 34 lives to work injuries in 2022, for a rate of 2.0 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. This is an increase from 2021's 23 deaths but is below Connecticut's annual average of 38 work-related deaths (Chart 1). Only one other state - Rhode Island - recorded a rate lower than Connecticut's (Table 1).

The nation lost 5,486 lives to workplace injuries in 2022, an increase from 2021's 5,190 deaths. The fatal injury rate increased from 3.6 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers in 2021 to 3.7 in 2022. The highest loss was seen in Texas with 578 deaths, followed by California with 504 deaths and Florida with 307 deaths. High rates were recorded in Wyoming (12.7) and North Dakota (9.8). Rhode Island had 7 deaths, the lowest recorded number for states.

Industry
Nationally, the construction industry recorded the highest number of deaths at 1,069 followed by transportation and warehousing with 1,053 deaths. Together, these two industries account for 39 percent of deaths.

The construction industry and the transportation and warehousing industry each had 9 deaths in Connecticut. Together, they accounted for 53 percent of 2022's deaths. Manufacturing came in third with 4 deaths, or 11.8 percent of total deaths (Table 2). With an overall rate of 2.0, Connecticut saw a rate of 9.4 in transportation and utilities and 6.7 in construction. Rates for other industry sectors did not meet publishing criteria. [ read more ]

he past several years have witnessed some extraordinary economic events. In 2020, a once-in-a-century virus triggered a near-collapse of the world economy. In 2021 real output grew at a breakneck pace as populations gained immunity against Covid and went back to work. In 2022 living costs jumped higher than at any time in more than a generation. Then in 2023, against all odds, price pressures were brought to heel without the feared sacrifice of high unemployment and reduced output. Now, with inflation nearly tamed, monetary authorities set to reverse rate hikes, and output and job growth on course to track closer to historical trends, 2024 is shaping up to be an uncommonly ordinary year.

The Global Economy
Following a 3.5% rise in world output in 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that global growth will slow to 3.0% 2023, and to 2.9% in 2024, below the 20-year annual average of 3.8%. The IMF outlook hinges on the assumptions that fuel and nonfuel commodity prices will ease in response to the slowdown in world economic activity, interest rates will peak and begin to inch downward in 2024 as major central banks begin to reduce rates, and 2024 will be a year of "fiscal consolidation" in developed and emerging economies alike, with fiscal tightening expected to be greatest among those countries that saw the largest increases in government debt in response to the pandemic. The IMF characterizes its overall outlook as consistent with a much-desired "soft landing" wherein price levels continue to ease while a major economic downturn is averted.

Beneath these topline projections, however, lies a divergence between the emerging and developed worlds. For the advanced economies, including the United States and Western Europe, output is expected to slow from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024 (well below the 20-year annual average of more than 2%). In emerging markets and developing economies, growth is expected to largely hold steady, from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024. Even so, those rates of growth remain below the 20-year trend of over 5% annually. [ read more ]

n October 2023, the Boston Consulting Company (BCG) released "Getting Young People Back on Track," an important blueprint for identifying and re-engaging disconnected and at-risk youth. The report was produced using data from the state's P20 WIN project and reached audiences including policymakers, youth services professionals, safety net service agencies, and media outlets. To further the efforts to reach at-risk young people, the Connecticut Department of Labor (CTDOL) presents the report's key findings followed by a synopsis of how the underlying data was compiled through the Connecticut longitudinal data system, P20 WIN. Additionally, CTDOL's Research Unit, a P20 WIN partner, offers three data-driven recommendations for future research.

At-Risk and Disconnected Young People
"Getting Young People Back on Track" concluded that during the 2021-2022 school year Connecticut had 119,000 youth between 14-26 years old who are either disconnected or at risk. Using the below definitional framework, this total is comprised of 63,000 disconnected and 56,000 at-risk youth.

On-track: young people aged 14-26 who are engaged in the educational system or on-track for gainful employment.

At-risk: three sub-populations-off-track, those students who do not meet state credit attainment requirements; at-risk due to other factors, such as absenteeism and/or behavioral issues; and severely off-track, those students are off-track and display additional risk factors. [ read more ] [ read more ]

bnoxious sounds, smells, and danger from manufacturing, farming, and mining are high on the list of things we want to keep from our bedrooms, kitchens, and living spaces. Methods for achieving this evolved over time to be embodied in what land use planners call Euclidean zoning that is by turns confounding, controversial, mystifying, and aspirational. What follows is a brief examination of how zoning has become a useful tool even as its application can become an economic trap for real estate developers, regulators, small businesses, and residents. While the challenges of housing affordability and sprawl are daunting, the aforementioned planners, together with public officials, real estate developers, and community financial institutions, are formulating responses designed to give rise to communities of human scale that encourage interaction among their inhabitants.

As people grew accustomed to living in group settlements, the walled cities of antiquity became places in which their denizens lived, worshipped, and carried out their civic business. Land outside the walls was reserved for the slaughter and rendering of animals, waste disposal, brick firing, mining, and other forms of extraction; the aboriginal form of zoning that separated incompatible land uses as shown in illustration 1 thus came into being. As populations grew and occupied ever more land, the protozoan form of cities, suburbs, and rural areas began to take shape where earth, space, vegetation, or any combination thereof came to serve as buffers separating incompatible land uses. As most work took place within the home before the industrial revolution of 1760 to 1840, residential areas in settlements of the time were centers of labor and commerce that gave rise to an urban environment of mixed residential and commercial land uses. The industrial revolution brought with it more intensive land uses such as manufacturing that took place in single large structures, on campuses, and within interconnected complexes occupied by up to thousands of workers gathered for labor that included assembly, slaughter and rendering of animals, and the processing of sewage and storm-water runoff. The scale at which industry did its work made the separation of working and living spaces a more urgent proposition; enter the concept of Euclidean zoning. [ read more ]

or the second year in a row, all state economic indexes increased last year. Connecticut had the twelfth-highest 2022 growth in the nation at 17.8%, exceeding the nation's 17.6% increase. Rhode Island, Colorado, Missouri, and New Jersey grew the most in 2022 while Washington, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Utah were the slowest.

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See September 2023 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes for all 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2022 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state that can be compared and ranked. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate.

Business establishments are the physical work units located in the state. Employment is the number of payroll employees in the establishments that are located in the state who are covered under the unemployment insurance law (nearly the universe count of all the payroll employees in each state). Average annual pay is the aggregate wages earned divided by the total average employment. Establishments, employment, and wages are proxies for each state's business activities and its overall economic strength, while the unemployment rate measures the overall economic health of each state's working residents. [ read more ]

Download SEI 2010-2022 data.xlsx

onnecticut's overall economy bounced back last year, as all municipalities' indexes rose in 2022, a recovery for all 169 cities and towns that fell in 2020 from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indexes on page 3 give a broad measure of business and resident economic well-being of each town, allowing comparisons among them.

The CTEI Methodology
The Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (CTEI) were introduced in 2015 and are released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the composite indexes of all 169 municipalities in the state to measure each town or city's overall economic health, which then can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective. The four annual average town economic indicators used as components are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered annual average wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number of payroll employees in establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under the unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all payroll employees in each town. [ read more ]

Download CTEI 2005-2022 data.xlsx

ccording to the most recent data published by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, the number of jobs in Connecticut increased by 3.2 percent during 2022.1 A combination of employment returning from pandemic losses and a strong job market contributed to this increase. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.9 percent of the state's employment total, increased by 3.4 percent. Total government employment increased slightly by 1.6 percent. Since the economic shutdown in March 2020, Connecticut has recovered nearly all the jobs lost, though some sectors have understandably fared better than others.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 4.4 percent, to $81,241. In 2022, private sector wages increased by 4.5 percent to $82,373; government wages increased 3.2 percent to $73,754.

Like 2021, new business establishment creation was up significantly compared to pre-pandemic, as new firms continue to explore new opportunities. New business starts were 16,459 in 2022, compared to 16,978 (revised) in 2021. Overall, establishments rose to 142,858 in 2022, an increase of 6.7 percent over 2021. Total private establishments represented nearly all of the increase, reaching 139,442 in 2022. Government worksites increased 1.5 percent in the state, from 3,374 in 2021 to 3,424 in 2022. [ read more ]

mproved trade momentum coming out of 2021 carried into 2022. Geopolitical issues influenced the global trade scene, namely the Russian war on Ukraine, as sanctions were imposed, supply chains disrupted, and countries looked to purchase more energy from the U.S. Rising interest rates, inflation, higher energy prices, labor shortages, and increased transportation and logistics costs continued to impact supply and demand conditions as well as consumer spending. With this background in mind, the following is a review of the state's 2022 export performance.

Annual Export Figures
In Annual 2022, Connecticut commodity exports increased 5.47% over 2021, totaling over $15.34 billion. Please refer to the associated tables for greater detail on the state's export composition. Although Connecticut continues to recover from the pandemic and there are encouraging signs of growth and momentum, state commodity exports have not returned to pre-pandemic levels nor the high of $17.4 billion recorded in 2018.

Due to the unavailability of data, we are unable to ascertain the differential between the number of companies that exported pre- and post-COVID-19. The most recent data indicates that 4,606 companies exported from Connecticut in 2020. 89% of these companies were small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with fewer than 500 employees. In 2019, approximately 63,000 U.S. jobs were supported by Connecticut exports. [ read more ]

Solving the Office to Residential Conversion Puzzle
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

ith almost a quarter of Hartford's available office space lying fallow as the city's residential vacancy rate hovers near two percent, shrinking office footprints suggest an obvious solution to the capital region's housing shortage. While the Capital Region Development Authority (CRDA) and state agencies work with real estate developers to turn the office glut into housing opportunity, an examination of office to residential conversion feasibility illustrates the complexity of achieving the office to residential space balance that can make the long-held vision of Hartford as a vibrant 24-hour city a reality. Examples from Philadelphia (1600 Arch Street) and Manhattan (180 Water Street) illustrate the challenges and opportunities for converting office space into desirable dwelling units.

A building envelope's shape, along with the placement of its structural columns, elevator shafts, and stairwells, constitutes the geometry within which an apartment's living, sleeping, and workspace areas are laid out. Developers, architects, and designers must solve for the adequacy of light and air movement that make a dwelling unit livable. The building's location and proximity to public amenities completes the value proposition of conversion versus demolition and new construction. [ read more ]

ow that three years have passed since the emergence of COVID-19 it is possible to begin to distinguish between the short-term and long-term effects of the pandemic. To provide additional measures of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducted a series of Business Response Surveys. The initial survey was conducted in July through September 2020. Additional surveys were conducted in July to September 2021 and August to September 2022. The results of these surveys give some insights into the effects of the pandemic on the labor market nationally and here in Connecticut. In addition, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from BLS and the Job-to-Job Flows from the U.S. Census show one unexpected effect of the pandemic - the greater willingness of workers to voluntarily leave their jobs and the resulting increase the number of job openings.

The 2020 Business Response Survey showed that Connecticut's business response to the pandemic was similar to businesses in the nation as a whole. For example, 51.9% of establishments nation-wide told employees not to work and 51.3% of these continued to pay employees some or all of their pay while not working. In Connecticut, it was 52.8% and 48.1% respectively. Nationally, 55.6% of establishments experienced a decrease in demand for their products or services and 18.7% experienced a government-mandated closure. Connecticut's portion with decreased demand was 56.3% while the portion with a mandated closure was 17.3% in Connecticut. Only 17.8% of establishments nationally and 17.1% in Connecticut reported that they experienced no impact from the pandemic on their business operations. [ read more ]

The Unemployment Rate of All Towns Fell in 2022
By Jungmin Charles Joo, Department of Labor

n 2022, the annual average statewide unemployment rate was 4.2%, down from 6.3% in 2021. As the labor force bounced back for the second year from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, all 169 municipalities experienced a decrease in their unemployment rate last year.

2021 to 2022
The unemployment rate in all 169 cities and towns in the state fell in 2022. Roxbury had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.5%, while the residents of Hartford experienced the highest rate of 6.5% last year (see table on page 3 for the complete town data). Overall, a total of 128 cities and towns had jobless rates below the 2022 statewide figure of 4.2%, 37 had rates above it, and 4 had rates equal to it. By comparison, 134 cities and towns had rates below the 2021 statewide average of 6.3%, 30 above it, and 5 were the same.

Of the five largest cities in the state with a 2010 Census population of 100,000 or more, Stamford had the lowest unemployment rate of 3.9% in 2022. Hartford posted the highest jobless rate among the large cities at 6.5%. All five cities experienced over-the-year unemployment rate decreases.  [ read more ]

here is a common adage that a strong stock market does not necessarily indicate a strong underlying economy, that the stock market is not the economy. What about budget surpluses - do year upon year of budget surpluses indicate a strong underlying economy?

Connecticut (CT) has shifted from ongoing budget deficits during the 2010s following the Great Recession to budget surpluses, including billion plus dollar surpluses more recently. There are multiple factors responsible for these budget surpluses. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government stepped in with financial assistance including the Paycheck Protection Program and Enhanced Unemployment Insurance. In addition, the pandemic-mandated work from home policy (where possible) reduced state office expenses while waivers and other safety-oriented accommodations reduced the level of interactions with the public and hence expenses. And finally, certain tax revenue sources have continued to outperform and come in above projections. What do these strong revenues indicate regarding CT's economy, have CT's economic indicators similarly outperformed? Let's find out.

The primary revenue sources for the General Fund (GF) include Income Tax and Sales and Use Tax; in Fiscal Year (FY)1 2022, Income Tax made up 48.7% and Sales Tax made up 19.4% of General Fund revenues.2 There are two components to Income Tax, Withholding and Estimates & Finals, representing 31.7% and 17.1%, respectively, of General Fund revenues in FY 2022. About 20 other taxes, revenues, fees, and federal grants comprise the remaining 31.9% of the General Fund, including sources such as Corporation Tax, slot revenues, Real Estate Conveyance Tax, and the Pass-through Entity Tax. The primary drivers of the budget surpluses include Income, Sales, and the Pass-through Entity Tax. [ read more ]  

onnecticut's economy is projected to add jobs through the end of the short-term projections period. Each year, the Office of Research at the Connecticut Department of Labor produces short-term employment projections by industry and occupation. The current round spans the second quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2024. Through 2024Q2, we project overall employment in Connecticut to increase by 2.5% from 1,800,395 to 1,845,444 including self-employment and unpaid family workers (UFW). The Goods-Producing sector is projected to grow by 3.7% and the Service-Providing Sector is projected to grow by 2.2% over two years. This latter sector represents 86.7% of industry employment in the state.

Projections by Industry
Among the 20 industry groups shown in figure 1, 16 are projected to increase over two years and 4 are projected to decline. The largest increases are expected in Health Care (+6,156), Accommodation & Food Services (+5,493), Manufacturing (+5,478), and Transportation & Warehousing (+4,643). These four industries account for more than half of the projected overall growth across all industries. The projected Health Care growth will bring that industry to early 2020 pre-pandemic employment levels. Accommodation & Food Services was one of the hardest hit industries during the COVID-19 lockdown and fell by almost 50% during the first half of 2020 from 134,000 to 71,000. That industry is projected to increase to almost 138,000 workers by the second quarter of 2024, exceeding 2020 pre-pandemic levels but still down from a series high of 144,000 reached in late 2019. The gains in Manufacturing are driven in large part by Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (NAICS 336), which is projected to account for 2,957 of the 5,478 job increase projected for the overall sector. Transportation & Warehousing quickly rebounded from the COVID-19 lockdown and added jobs throughout the recovery. The industry was up 14,500 jobs or 25% from 2020Q2 to 2022Q2 and is expected to continue to grow by 7% through 2024Q2. [ read more ]

The Provision State - Connecticut's Private Defense-Related Employment into the 21st Century
By Labor Department Research Staff Update

he Office of Research at the Connecticut Department of Labor has been documenting and tracking industry employment in the state with our federal partners, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), since at least the late 1930's. Since the statistics began (and we have employment data back to 1939) defense-related manufacturing has been of interest to policymakers and the public. Tracking employment was a necessary endeavor during WW II for the planning of defense production in the war effort. Office of Research folklore has it rumored that future Governor Ella Grasso worked together with our office when she was assistant state director of research of the Federal War Manpower Commission during WW II.1 Consequently, the first Cold War end was expedited by a major U.S. defense industry build-up in the 1980's and supported strong statewide employment growth during that decade. Connecticut's aerospace and shipbuilding industry employment amongst other industry sectors helped the U.S. end the Cold War. [ read more ]

onnecticut employment continued to improve for the second year in a row, nearly completely recovering to the pre-pandemic levels. The revised annual average total nonfarm employment rose 3.1% to a level of 1,665,600 in 2022. Correspondingly, last year's annual average unemployment rate dropped significantly to 4.2% from 6.3% in 2021. In fact, 2022 economy recovered the strongest over the last nine years as per annual diffusion index.

Nonfarm Employment
After the latest annual revision (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data), in 2022 Connecticut regained 49,300 jobs (3.1%), more than the gain of 45,600 jobs (2.9%) in 2021. In the nation employment rose faster at 4.3% in 2022, after having increased 2.9% in 2021.

As shown in Chart 1, all but one of Connecticut's industry sectors bounced back last year. Ten of eleven major industry sectors have added jobs back over the year, while mining was unchanged. The biggest recovery occurred in leisure and hospitality (10.9%), other services (4.8%), and information (3.7%). Leisure and hospitality was also the biggest job gainer (14,700), followed by education and health services (8,300). Financial activities (0.2%) and government (1.3%) posted the slowest job growth in 2022. [ read more ]  

s the Covid-19 pandemic moved to the back burner in 2022, the world, the country and the state of Connecticut wrestled with a new host of challenges that will continue to shape the economic outlook for 2023. Chief among them: the highest rates of inflation in over forty years, aggravated by Russia's war against Ukraine which has injected uncertainty in global commodity markets for energy and food. Meanwhile, central banks around the world are raising interest rates to tame price pressures-an effort that will inevitably chill economic growth going forward.

The Global Economy
Following a 6.0% rise in world output in 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that global growth will slow to 3.2% 2022, and moderate further, to 2.7% in 2023. The IMF outlook hinges on the assumptions that: inflation expectations will not become unmoored; the worst of the dislocations created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are behind us; and monetary authorities do not tighten policy to such an extent as to engender widespread recessions and upheavals in financial markets. Though an actual decline in world output does not appear to be in the cards, IMF forecasters anticipate that more than 40 percent of the world's economies that report output data on a quarterly basis will experience a so-called "technical recession" of two or more quarters of negative GDP growth.

These topline projections, however, mask a wide gulf between the emerging and developed worlds. For the advanced economies, including the United States and Western Europe, where GDP rebounded by 5.2% in 2021 following its 4.4% plunge during the pandemic, output is expected to grow 2.4% in 2022 (slightly above its 20-year annual average of 2.1%) but by only 1.1% in 2023. High inflation will eat into purchasing power and rising interest rates will crimp consumer spending and business investment. In emerging markets, by contrast, where the toll of the pandemic was far less severe (output fell just 1.9% in 2020) and the 2021 rebound, at 6.6%, was brisker, output is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2022 and to maintain that pace in 2023. That growth rate, however, is significantly below the 20-year trend of 5.2% annually.  [ read more ]

onnecticut lost 23 lives to work injuries in 2021, for a rate of 1.4 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. This is the lowest recorded number of deaths since the program began in 1992. This is a decrease from 2020's 29 deaths and is below Connecticut's annual average of 38 work-related deaths (Chart 1). Only one other state - Rhode Island - recorded a rate lower than Connecticut's (Table 1).

The nation lost 5,190 lives to workplace injuries in 2021, an increase from 2020's 4,764 deaths. The fatal injury rate increased from 3.4 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers in 2020 to 3.6 in 2021. The highest loss was seen in Texas with 533 deaths, followed by California with 462 deaths and Florida with 315 deaths. High rates were recorded in Wyoming (10.4) and North Dakota (9.0). Rhode Island had 5 deaths, the lowest recorded number for states.

Industry
Nationally, the construction industry recorded the highest number of deaths at 986, followed by transportation and warehousing with 976 deaths. Together, these two industries account for 38 percent of deaths.

With 6 deaths, the construction industry had the highest number of deaths in Connecticut, accounting for 26.1 percent of 2021's deaths. Administrative and waste services came in second with 5 deaths, accounting for 21.7 percent of total deaths (Table 2). With an overall rate of 1.4, Connecticut saw a rate of 5.2 in construction and 2.5 in professional and business services. Rates for other industry sectors did not meet publishing criteria. [ read more ]

CURRENT SITUATION
cience, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) occupations are projected to grow faster than all occupations in Connecticut through 2030. These high-growth, good-paying occupations are distributed throughout most major industries in the state and include a variety of career opportunities for Connecticut workers.

The Connecticut Department of Labor discussed our 2020-2030 long-term projections in the September 2022 edition of the Connecticut Economic Digest. That article noted expectations of employment increasing by 201,000 jobs in Connecticut from 2020 to 2030. The industries projected to drive this overall growth include Accommodation & Food Services, Health Care, Transportation & Warehousing, and Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services. The long-term projections are conducted every two years by all 50 states and major territories at the industry and occupational level. This article focuses on STEM occupations within the long-term projections to illustrate employment expectations for this important segment of the Connecticut economy.

Top Ten STEM Occupations in CT
The ten largest STEM occupations account for 57% of overall STEM employment in the state. Among these ten occupations, four are computer occupations (SOC-15), three are engineering (SOC-17), two are management (SOC-11), and one involves sales (SOC-41). The largest STEM occupation in the state, Software Developers & Analysts (15-1256) had 2020 employment of 19,130 and is expected to grow by 5,280 or 28% to 24,410 by 2030. The other STEM occupations in Figure 1 are projected to grow between 8% and 22% through 2030. These occupations have annual average wages of between $63,380 (Computer User Support Specialist) and $150,629 (Computer & Information Systems Managers). STEM occupations earned an average of $103,214 overall in 2021, which compares favorably to $67,169 earned on average for all employment in the state [ read more ]

conomic indexes bounced back last year in all states after having fallen in 2020. Forty-nine states (including Connecticut) had faster growth in 2021 than in 2019 - the last pre-pandemic year while one state matched the 2019 pace.

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See October 2022 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes for all 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2021 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate. [ read more ]

Download SEI 2010-2021 data.xlsx

onnecticut's overall economy bounced back last year, as 99% of municipalities' indexes rose in 2021, after all of 169 cities and towns having fallen in 2020 from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indexes on page 3 give a broad measure of business and resident economic well-being of each town, allowing comparisons among them.

The CTEI Methodology
The Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (CTEI) were introduced in 2015 and are released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the composite indexes of all 169 municipalities in the state to measure each town or city's overall economic health, which then can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective. The four annual average town economic indicators used as components are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered annual average wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number payroll employees in establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all payroll employees in each town. [ read more ]

Download CTEI 2005-2021 data.xlsx

onnecticut's employment is projected to increase by more than 201,000 jobs over the ten-year period ending in 2030. This 12% increase is 4.3 percentage points above the U.S. projection of 7.7%. Every two years, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces 10-year projections of the U.S. labor force and employment by industry and occupation. This process is replicated at the state level to produce a detailed overview of the expected direction of the labor market in Connecticut.

Effects of COVID-19 on the 2020-30 Projections
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a steep and short U.S. recession from February to April 2020.1 The impact of this translates to lower base-year values than earlier rounds of long-term projections. This results in higher projected employment growth, particularly in the industries and occupations that had the largest COVID-19 declines.2 These projections assume a full-employment economy, and many industries heavily impacted by COVID-19 are projected to have higher growth than would occur if the base year was not so low due to the recession.

In addition, some industries and occupations have seen a change in long-term demand as a result of the pandemic. Industries that are expected to see long-term increased growth include computer-related occupations such as those that relate to telework computing infrastructure and IT security. On the other hand, Retail Trade is expected to experience an amplification of its long-term declines due to changes in consumer behavior that will outlast the pandemic. [ read more ]

ccording to the most recent data published by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, the number of jobs in Connecticut increased by 3.0 percent during 2021. The return of employees to work after the COVID shutdowns of 2020 was the primary cause for the increase. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.7 percent of the state's employment total, increased by 3.5 percent. Total government employment was relatively flat, declining 0.3 percent. It is important to note that this is a historical look at 2021 and it paints a less rosy picture of the economy than we know to be true based on 2022 data.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 3.2 percent, to $77,839. Given the nation experienced a non-seasonally adjusted annual inflation rate of 4.7 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCNS), most employees lost purchasing power even with the nominal wage increase. In 2021, private sector wages increased by 3.2 percent to $78,820; government wages increased 2.7 percent to $71,462.

Like 2020, new business establishment creation was up significantly compared to pre-pandemic, as new firms continue to explore new opportunities. New business starts were 15,292 in 2021, compared to 12,747 in 2020. Overall, establishments rose to 133,921 in 2021, an increase of 5.4 percent over 2020. Total private establishments represented nearly all of the increase, reaching 130,547 in 2021. Government worksites increased 0.2 percent in the state, from 3,368 in 2020 to 3,374 in 2021 [ read more ]

onnecticut's post-pandemic housing market momentum continued into 2021, with home sales and values continuing to rise as COVID restrictions eased. Home prices exceeded 2020 levels to reach a new high, and the number of units sold increased year over year as well. However, rising mortgage rates and low inventory may be a headwind that checks the market in 2022.

Housing Production
Census Bureau data shows that cities and towns in Connecticut authorized 4,651 single and multifamily homes with a total valuation of $1.22 billion in 2021. Despite the dynamic market, this was a 15% decline from the 5,471 units in 2020. The decrease was driven by 45% fewer permits for multifamily housing compared to 2020 levels; permits for single family structures increased by 17% over 2020, perhaps reflecting changing living preferences.

Connecticut issued 2,941 single family permits which accounted for 63% of the total number of units authorized, the highest share in ten years. Only 32% were multifamily (5 units or more), breaking the recent trend of higher production of multifamily housing. New Haven (299), Milford (199), and Darien (159) had the highest number of permits, most of which were for multifamily housing. Southington (104), Bristol (94), and Greenwich (87) led the way in single family housing authorizations. [ read more ]

Transit Bus and Rail Ridership Trends
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

ith transit bus and rail ridership nearing pre-pandemic levels, the return of passengers to Connecticut's public transportation systems is on an upward trajectory. This stands in contrast to ridership trends from 2017 to 2020 shown in Charts 1 and 2. Chart 1 shows the number of unlinked passenger trips1 for each of CT Transit's2 divisions. Passenger trip decreases from 2019 to 2020 range from 7.2% in Waterbury to 17% in the New Britain division. The Hartford division that operates and manages 30% of the state's transit buses experienced a 17% ridership reduction. Pandemic-induced ridership declines in the nine transit districts outside of CT Transit's divisions (Chart 2) ranged from 63.3% for the Mashantucket-Pequot system to a low of 3.9% in the Northwestern Transit District (NWCTD). The two highest ridership districts, the Greater Bridgeport Transit Authority (GBT) with 4.2 million boardings in 2020, and the Norwalk Transit District with 1.1 million boardings had 20.2% and 18.1% fewer riders than in 2019. The outlier among these regions is the Windham Region Transit District whose nearly 25% ridership increase may be attributable to its concentration of employers whose operations depend on in-person work. [ read more ]

n 2021, the annual average statewide unemployment rate was 6.3%, down from 7.8% in 2020. As the labor force bounced back from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, all 169 municipalities experienced a decrease in their unemployment rate last year.

2020 to 2021
The unemployment rate in all 169 cities and towns in the state fell in 2021. Cornwall had the lowest unemployment rate of 3.7%, while the residents of Hartford experienced the highest rate of 11.0% last year (see table on page 3 for the complete town data). Overall, a total of 134 cities and towns had jobless rates below the 2021 statewide figure of 6.3%, 31 had rates above it, and 4 had rates equal to it. By comparison, 127 cities and towns had rates below the 2020 statewide average of 7.8%, 39 above it, and 3 were the same.

Of the five largest cities in the state with a 2010 Census population of 100,000 or more, Stamford had the lowest unemployment rate of 5.7% in 2021. Hartford posted the highest jobless rate among the large cities at 11.0%. All five cities experienced over-the-year unemployment rate decreases. [ read more ]

Job Openings Growth and the Tight Labor Market in Connecticut
By Matthew Krzyzek, Economist, Department of Labor

s the global economy recovers from the tumultuous impacts of COVID-19, its continued effect on labor markets is illustrated by a look at the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The JOLTS survey provides information on labor demand and turnover at the U.S., regional, and most recently at the state levels.1 This information includes estimates of job openings, new hires, layoffs, quits, and other labor market movements.

In the year before the early 2020 COVID-recession, the economy had a tight labor market. The unemployment rate was below 4% and the U.S. and Northeast both had more openings than unemployed workers throughout the year. Figure 1 shows the number of job openings per unemployed worker from early 2019 through March 2022. This ratio experienced an unprecedented decline during early 2020. In February 2020, Connecticut had 1.05 job openings per unemployed worker, a level in line with the Northeast (1.07). The U.S. rate was higher. Two months later, as COVID-related unemployment spiked, there were only 0.33 openings per unemployed worker in Connecticut and 0.20 in both the Northeast and U.S. Put another way, in April 2020, there were three unemployed workers per opening in the state, and five unemployed workers per opening in the Northeast and U.S. [ read more ]

CURRENT SITUATION
he past two years have been a period of unprecedented economic change during which labor markets adapted to COVID-19 mitigation. In early 2020, the US economy had a 2-month recession, the shortest on record.1 Employment peaked in February at 152.5 million and fell by 22 million two months later. Employment began to quickly rebound and more than half of the 22 million jobs lost were recovered by September 2022. The most recent month of data marks two years from the February 2020 pre-COVID employment peak and show that the current employment level has recovered 92.8% of jobs lost nationwide during the recession.

Figure 1 shows the impact of the COVID-19 recession and recovery on northeast states through March 2022. Every northeast state had 2020 percent losses that were steeper than the U.S. Connecticut's 17% decline was the second lowest in the Northeast. Adjacent states of Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island had respective drops of 18.4%, 20.2%, and 21.3%. In the two years since the February 2020 peak, Connecticut has recovered 81.8% of the jobs lost during the COVID-recession, more than New York (76.4%), but less than Massachusetts (87.1%) and Rhode Island (85.1%). [ read more ] 

he impact of COVID-19 was greatly felt in 2020, marked by some of the largest reductions in trade since World War II. Economic disruptions, uncertainties, production and labor issues, supply chain reverberations, and reductions in supply and demand drove large international trade declines and increased trade costs.

With global leaders and businesses now looking to shift from a pandemic to endemic phase, new trade questions emerge. What does the post-COVID-19 trade map look like? What will be the long-term shift to mitigate risk and address supply disruptions? How will we reimagine the global economy? And importantly, have exports recovered to pre-pandemic levels?

The following is a review of the state's 2021 export performance and, where possible, pre-COVID-19 data comparisons are provided. [ read more ]

Much Ado About Traffic Safety
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

n the fifth day of spring 2020, Connecticut's roads became nearly deserted as the governor ordered that all but essential businesses and institutions stop in-person operations as a world-wide pandemic took hold. Despite near-universal compliance with the stay-at-home order, 301 people-the most since 2016-would die in motor vehicle crashes by year's end. The upward trend shown in the Crash Data Table continued through 2021 with traffic fatalities rising to 323. Connecticut's experience reflects the national trend in which motor-vehicle crashes killed 38,680 people in 2020. While traffic deaths across the US fell by 8% in the 2010's, pedestrian fatalities spiked by 42%. [ read more ]

hough not completely recovered, Connecticut employment turned around last year following the severely COVID-19 pandemic-impacted 2020. The revised annual average total nonfarm employment rose 2.7% to a level of 1,613,000. Correspondingly, last year's unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% from 7.8% in 2020. Overall, 2021 economy recovered to a similar strength of 2018, as per annual diffusion index.

Nonfarm Employment
After the latest annual revision (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data), in 2021 Connecticut regained 42,300 jobs (2.7%), after having lost 125,400 jobs, or -7.4% in 2020. Meanwhile in the nation employment rose 2.8% in 2021, after having shed 5.8% in 2020.

As shown in Chart 1, most of Connecticut's industry sectors partially bounced back last year. In fact, seven of eleven major industry sectors have added jobs back over the year. The biggest recovery occurred in leisure and hospitality (14.1%), construction (4.6%), and trade, transportation and utilities (4.4%). Leisure and hospitality was also the biggest job gainer (16,500), followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (12,100). On the other hand, manufacturing (-0.3%) and government (-0.3%) lost jobs over the year. The biggest job loss was in financial activities (-2,500, -2.1%).  [ read more ]  

onnecticut lost 29 lives to work injuries in 2020, for a rate of 1.8 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. While this is an increase from 2019's 26 deaths, it is below Connecticut's annual average of 38 work-related deaths. Only two other states - Delaware and Rhode Island - recorded rates lower than Connecticut's

The nation lost 4,764 lives to workplace injuries in 2020, a decrease from 2019's 5,333 deaths. This is the lowest annual number since 2013. The fatal injury rate dropped from 3.5 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers in 2019 to 3.4 in 2020. The highest loss was seen in Texas with 469 deaths, followed by California with 463 deaths and Florida with 275 deaths. High rates were recorded in Wyoming (13.0) and Alaska (10.7). Rhode Island had 5 deaths, the lowest recorded number for states.

Industry
Nationally, the construction industry recorded the highest number of deaths at 1,008, followed by transportation and warehousing with 805 deaths. Together, these two industries account for 38 percent of deaths.

With 9 deaths, the construction industry had the highest number of deaths in Connecticut, accounting for 31.0 percent of 2020's deaths. Transportation and warehousing came in second with 7 deaths, accounting for 24.1 percent of total deaths. With an overall rate of 1.8, Connecticut saw a rate of 8.3 in construction. Rates for other industry sectors did not meet publishing criteria. [ read more ]

n 2021, the world, the country and the state of Connecticut continued to dig out from under the economic wreckage left by the Alpha wave of the Covid-19, even as they fended off emerging mutations of the virus. While production has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, jobs have been slower to come back. The recovery efforts will carry on in 2022, despite the rise of new variants, the growing threat of inflation, and the hesitancy of would-be workers to fill job openings.

The Global Economy
Following a 3.1% drop in world output in 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the ongoing recovery from the global coronavirus epidemic will have added 5.9% to the value of world output in 2021, boosting production above pre-pandemic levels. Assuming vaccines become widely available in emerging markets and fiscal and monetary policy support continues in the developed economies, output should expand by another 4.9% in 2022.

These topline projections mask a wide gulf between the emerging and developed worlds. For the advanced economies, including the United States and Western Europe, where GDP plunged by 4.5% during the pandemic, output is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2022-two and one-half times faster than the rate of trend output growth over the past 20 years. In emerging markets, however, where the toll of the pandemic was less severe (output fell just 2.1% in 2020) growth rates in 2022 are expected to reach 5.1%, but that is below the 5.4% 20-year average for this group of economies.  [ read more ]

onnecticut has now regained 73% of the jobs lost during the COVID-19 shutdown and the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.4% as of October 2021. These numbers give a "snapshot" of economic conditions based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), two surveys that provide a timely picture of Connecticut's labor market conditions.

While not as timely, more detail regarding the workings of the labor market is available through the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. This data is possible due to the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) partnership between the Census Bureau and state workforce agencies including the Connecticut Department of Labor. [ read more ]

s in the rest of the world, the economy in the City of New Haven has been heavily impacted by COVID 19. Quantitative data has proven to be one of our most reliable methods for understanding the development of the COVID 19 crisis and especially its impacts on our businesses. Continued unemployment claims topped out at 10,000 in April 2020, which made up over 15% of our labor force, and remained above 6,000 until July 2021. At least 66 businesses closed permanently, City parking revenues plummeted from over $100,000 per week in February 2020 to below $5,000 per week in April 2020, and downtown pedestrian counts dropped from over 65,000 per week to 11,000 during the same time span. These data points help us review the arch of the economic crisis with an added level of understanding that we did not always have as events were unfolding around us.

As the crisis hit, the City was focused on immediate response in terms of public health, the continuity of government and supporting our economy. Federal assistance programs were being created to replace income or provide temporary or permanent relief from required payments like taxes, mortgage, and loans to businesses. Local economic development activities shifted to crisis response and triage as economic impacts rolled in. In addition to assisting through locally-funded programs, like the New Haven digital marketplace and Eat New Haven marketing program, the City also became a resource center, identifying and understanding Federal and State assistance programs and connecting businesses with applications. [ read more ]

ecause of the COVID-19 pandemic, all state economic indexes fell over the year. After annual revisions, Connecticut ranked 35th out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) in the State Economic Indexes (SEI) in 2020, down from the 25th position in 2019.

Utah came in first in the nation with the highest index of 143.1 last year, while Hawaii placed last (103.3). Our state's index of 114.2 was below the nationwide value of 119.8

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See September 2021 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes for all 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2020 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state that can be compared and ranked. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate. [ read more ]

Download SEI 2010-2020 data.xlsx

onnecticut's overall economy shrank last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, as all of 169 municipalities' fell in 2020. The indexes on page 3 give a broad measure of business and resident economic well-being of each town, allowing comparisons among them.

The CTEI Methodology
The Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (CTEI) were introduced in 2015 and are released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the composite indexes of all 169 municipalities in the state to measure each town or city's overall economic health, which then can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective. The four annual average town economic indicators used as components are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered annual average wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number payroll employees in establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all payroll employees in each town. [ read more ]

Download CTEI 2005-2020 data.xlsx

ccording to the most recent data published by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, the number of jobs in Connecticut decreased by 7.5 percent during 2020. The impact of the Coronavirus pandemic was the primary driver of employment and wage changes in 2020. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.2 percent of the state's employment total, decreased by 7.8 percent. Total government employment was also down 5.3 percent.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 8.1 percent, to $75,411. One must keep in mind that this increase is mostly due to lower wage earners no longer being employed, raising the average. In 2020, private sector wages increased by 8.2 percent to $76,341; government wages increased 7.3 percent to $69,594.

Despite, and perhaps because of the pandemic, new business establishment creation was up significantly over the second half of 2020 as the economy reopened. New business starts were 5,927 from July-December 2020, compared to 4,908 for the same time period in 2019. Overall, establishments rose to 127,003 in 2020, an increase of 2.6 percent over 2019. Total private establishments represented nearly all of the increase, reaching 123,635 in 2020. Government worksites increased 0.6 percent in the state, from 3,347 in 2019 to 3,368 in 2020. [ read more ]

onnecticut's housing market saw notable gains last year due in part to COVID-19, which spurred an outmigration from large urban areas like New York City. For example, home prices hit an all-time high and sales surged to their highest levels in sixteen years. This article examines these and other factors that contributed to a strong housing market in 2020.

Housing Production
According to data released from the Bureau of the Census, cities and towns in Connecticut authorized 5,471 single and multifamily homes with a total valuation of $1.061 billion in 2020. This level of production represented a 6.5% decrease from 5,854 in 2019, but an 13.6% increase from 4,815 in 2018.

In 2020, Fairfield County authorized the most permits (34.0%), followed by New Haven County (25.1%) and Hartford County (15.5%). Windham County had the smallest share (2.7%). Connecticut issued 2,512 single family permits which accounted for 45.9% of the total number of housing units authorized, while 48.9% were multifamily (5 units or more), continuing the recent trend of higher demand for multifamily housing-especially in urban areas. [ read more ]

Much Ado About Parking
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

ith more parking space than public parkland in its downtown, Hartford's planners are considering the role parking plays in city life. The 435.2 acres of parking in downtown's two square miles would cover the University of Hartford campus, Bushnell Park, and the entire river-front park system in Hartford and East Hartford combined. Comparable cities such as Cambridge, MA and Arlington, VA dedicate 80% less land to parking than our capital city. This article looks at the challenges excess parking brings to Hartford; the ambitious measure taken by the city to integrate parking with development to attract new residents; and a new downtown development that applies design principles prioritizing vibrant street life over storing cars.

From 1960 to 2000, Hartford's parking-to-building-area ratio more than doubled because of its desire to emulate suburbs' easy access to parking. Map 1 shows the results of this trend. The city's 21st century development priorities are evolving from its pursuit of Class A office space1 to adding housing that would transform downtown from a briefcase town to a vibrant and diverse 24-hour community with active street life. Since 2014, 881 apartments have been added downtown, with 477 more under construction, and 188 units in planning or design phases. [ read more ]

OVID-19 had far-reaching impacts on commerce in 2020, resulting in economic disruptions, production issues, and reductions in supply and demand. Consumer demand sharply increased for particular goods, while others experienced dramatic drops. Extraordinary levels of uncertainty caused consumers to hold off on big ticket purchases and durables. As the virus spread along trade and travel routes, COVID-19 drove large international trade declines and disrupted everything as lockdowns and slowed border crossings led to supply chain disruptions and increased trade costs.

To assess Connecticut's export status, The Connecticut Economic Digest conducts an annual review of the state's export performance. A review of the state's 2020 export position follows, all of which should be viewed in the frame of COVID-19. [ read more ]

2020 Unemployment Rate by Town
By Jungmin Charles Joo, Department of Labor

n 2020, the annual average statewide unemployment rate was 7.9%, up from 3.6% in 2019. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all 169 municipalities experienced an increase in their unemployment rate last year.

2019 to 2020
The unemployment rate in all 169 cities and towns in the state rose in 2020. Sharon had the lowest unemployment rate of 4.4%, while the residents of Norwich experienced the highest rate of 14.0% last year (see table on page 3 for the complete town data). Overall, a total of 127 cities and towns had jobless rates below the 2020 statewide figure of 7.9%, 40 had rates above it, and 2 had rates equal to it. By comparison, 126 cities and towns had rates below the 2019 statewide average of 3.6%, 31 above it, and 12 were the same.

Of the five largest cities in the state with a 2010 Census population of 100,000 or more, Stamford had the lowest unemployment rate of 8.1% in 2020. Hartford posted the highest jobless rate among the large cities at 13.3%. All five cities experienced over-the-year unemployment rate increases. [ read more ]

he past year is certainly one that won't be forgotten. The economy fell from record highs to record lows over the course of two months. From February to April 2020, the US and Connecticut economies fell respectively by 14.7 and 17.2 percent. In the year since, both have recovered just over 58% of the jobs lost from the February US employment peak to the April employment trough. When compared to other states, Connecticut's employment recovery rate (April 2020 to Feb. 2021) has been larger than the adjacent states of New York and Massachusetts but lower than Rhode Island's.

Connecticut Short-Term Projections
Each year, the Office of Research at the Connecticut Department of Labor produces short-term employment projection by industry and occupation. The current projections are for the period from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2022. This base quarter coincides with the April 2020 employment trough and illustrates where we project employment to be two years after the start of the pandemic. Through 2022Q2, we project overall employment in Connecticut to increase by 13.5% from 1,541,793 to 1,750,039, as is shown in the industry table. This projected growth suggests that the state will rebound through 2022Q2 and recover most of the employment lost during the pandemic. [ read more ]  

he events of the past year have highlighted the importance of Bioscience. The immediate need for pandemic mitigation resulted in a global mobilization that rapidly produced vaccines and increased medical equipment production. Bioscience Doesn't fall within a specific North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry code and contains a broad cross-section of service industries and goods producing industries such as pharmaceutical, chemical, and medical device manufacturing.1 In February 2012, the Connecticut Economic Digest published an article on Bioscience which overviewed key industries that make up that sector in the state.2 The table below uses the bioscience industry cluster defined in that article and shows that in 2019 (the last year of annual data), the state had over a thousand Bioscience establishments that employed over 23,000 workers. This industry definition Doesn't account for the total impact of Bioscience on overall employment given spillover effects on other sectors such as Education and Health Care, and it Doesn't account for the total labor supply of available workers given that many employed in other forms of manufacturing or research & development have compatible occupational skills that would be relevant to an employer looking to expand in the state.

The pie chart illustrates that across all Bioscience industries, about half are in the service sector and half are in the goods producing sector. Among the 8 industries, the largest two industries, Research & Development in Sciences (32%) and Medical Equipment & Supplies Manufacturing (28%) account for about half of Bioscience employment in the state. [ read more ]

Update on Property Taxation
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

rom the Lake Chaffee Improvement Association (Ashford) to the Borough of Jewett City (Griswold) to sandy Miami Beach (Old Lyme), property taxes1 levied by Connecticut's 169 municipalities and 310 taxing districts finance public education, safety, and infrastructure as well as some private roads and security. Real estate, motor vehicle, and personal property taxes constitute more than half of city, town, and district revenue and 98.5% of local tax collection to finance services provided by jurisdictions shown in Table 1. This article outlines local tax-assessment structures and describes novel solutions the city of Hartford developed to balance taxation among homeowners and commercial property owners. The Hartford example was chosen because its methods affect a broad cross section of property-tax payers rather than targeted relief offered by many of Connecticut's municipalities. The article concludes by describing the Massachusetts and New York experiences with property taxation limits.

While local officials administer property assessment and taxation, state law governs the manner in which municipal assessors determine property value, assessment ratios,2 and tax-collection procedures. Additionally, state statute authorizes tax exemptions, credits, and abatements. Despite extensive public discussion about property tax reduction, state law has changed little beyond mandating abatements for veterans and offering municipalities tax relief options for people with disabilities and the elderly as well as permitting the phase-in of assessment increases over as many as five years to delay property tax increases resulting from reassessment. [ read more ]

mployment fell sharply in Connecticut for the first time since 2010 and the overall economy shrank in 2020. After having increased for eight straight years, the revised annual average total nonfarm employment fell slightly in 2019, and drastically last year, due to the impact from the pandemic. Correspondingly, last year's unemployment rate rose significantly, while after having increased in the last six years, real personal income fell markedly. Not surprisingly the value of annual diffusion index of 58 state economic indicators dropped dramatically as well in 2020.

As in past years, this article focuses on the annual average. However, 2020 was unusual for many reasons. There were sharp job declines concentrated in a few months in the first half of the year followed by several months of strong growth - although not strong enough to fully overcome the large job losses caused by the pandemic. [ read more ]  

onnecticut lost 26 lives to work injuries in 2019, for a rate of 1.4 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. This is the lowest recorded number of deaths since the census began in 1992. A decrease from 2018's 48 deaths, it is below Connecticut's annual average of 39 work-related deaths (Chart 1). Connecticut's rate of 1.4 is the lowest recorded by any state for 2019.

The nation lost 5,333 lives to workplace injuries in 2019, an increase from 2018's 5,250 deaths. However, the fatal injury rate remained unchanged from 2018 - 3.5 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. Twenty-eight states had more fatal injuries in 2019 than 2018, while 21 states had fewer. The highest loss was seen in Texas with 608 deaths, followed by California with 451 deaths and Florida with 306 deaths. High rates were recorded in Alaska (14.1) and Wyoming (12.0). The District of Columbia, Rhode Island, and Vermont each had 10 deaths, the lowest recorded number for states.

Industry
Nationally, the construction industry recorded the highest number of deaths at 1,061, followed by transportation and warehousing with 913 deaths. Together, these two industries account for 37 percent of deaths.

With 8 deaths, the transportation and warehousing industry had the highest number of deaths in Connecticut, accounting for 30.8 percent of 2019's deaths. Construction came in second with 6 deaths, accounting for 23.1 percent of total deaths. With an overall rate of 1.4, Connecticut saw a rate of 10.9 in transportation and utilities and 4.7 in construction. Rates for other industry sectors did not meet publishing criteria. The government sector recorded 2 deaths.  [ read more ]

e've lived through a year like no other in modern memory, one that has turned lives and economies upside down. But as we look forward to a new year where vaccines promise to begin to restore some normalcy, there will be much rebuilding ahead. That work will present both problems and opportunities for the world, the nation, and the state of Connecticut.

Global and U.S. Overview
Following growth in world output of 2.4% in 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the global coronavirus epidemic will have slashed the value of world output by 4.4% in 2020. Assuming the widespread distribution of vaccines and therapeutics, along with continued fiscal and monetary policy support, output should expand by 5.2% in 2021, more than enough to restore output to pre-pandemic levels.

For the world's advanced economies, including the United States and Western Europe, the prospects are not quite so rosy. The toll of the pandemic was likely greater - a 5.8% drop in output - and the rebound is expected to be less brisk - a 3.9% uptick in the new year. But in emerging markets and developing economies the picture is reversed: a 3.3% decline in output in 2020 followed by a 6.0% surge in 2021. The leader here is Mainland China, where the virus originated. A swift and severe lockdown allowed the country to check the spread of infection and to preserve a modicum of positive, 1.9%, growth for the year. China's economy is expected to swell by more than 8% in 2021.  [ read more ]

annabidiol (CBD) is a non-psychoactive natural compound primarily extracted from the hemp plant which is being investigated for numerous potential health benefits. Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the chemical component in marijuana that causes the euphoric "high." In recent years the debate on CBD and THC has taken the nation by storm. Products can be purchased in a multitude of forms ranging from oils and cartridges to bath products. Proponents of both natural compounds claim that they have many therapeutic effects. However, critics are skeptical as limited research and data is currently available on both substances. With divided opinions on whether these compounds have beneficial or detrimental effects on both individuals and a society, it is noteworthy to investigate our nation and Connecticut's current standing on CBD and THC as well as the effects on our local economy.

CBD is a cannabinoid, one of over 100 naturally occurring chemical compounds found in the cannabis plant. It can be derived from both hemp and marijuana plants. CBD extracted from hemp is federally legal in the United States, but if acquired from marijuana is classified as a schedule 1 drug. Unlike it's distant cousin THC, CBD is non-psychoactive, meaning it will not provide a hallucinatory effect which is associated with marijuana utilization. [ read more ]

onnecticut's economic performance ranked 32nd in 2019 when compared to other states and the District of Columbia (DC). This is up from 37th in 2018 and the best ranking in nine years.

For the second time, South Carolina came in first in the nation with the highest index of 192.3 last year, while Alaska continued to place last (113.2). Our state's index of 144.2 was below the nationwide value of 153.4.

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See October 2020 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes for all 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2019 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state that can be compared and ranked. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate. [ read more ]

Download SEI 2010-2019 data.xlsx

onnecticut's overall economy continued its moderate growth last year, based on the index performances of cities and towns. The indexes on page 3 give a broad measure of business and resident economic well-being of each town, allowing comparisons among them.

The CTEI Methodology
The Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (CTEI) were introduced five years ago and are released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the composite indexes of all 169 municipalities in the state to measure each town or city's overall economic health, which then can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective. The four annual average town economic indicators used as components are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered annual average wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number payroll employees in establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all payroll employees in each town. [ read more ]

Download CTEI 2005-2019 data.xlsx

ewly released data through 2019 illustrates changes in the demographic composition of employment in the years leading up to the 2019 business cycle peak. During the past year the economy went from one extreme to the other. In a matter of weeks, the pandemic paused many sectors of the economy and required populations globally to change behavior and adapt to minimize its impact on public health. Unemployment went from a historic low to a historic high, unemployment claims reached record levels, and the US economy went swiftly into a recession by the first quarter of this year. A look at the demographic trends before the pandemic can give insight into what we can expect in a post-pandemic economy.

Long Term Trends: 1999-2019
The racial and ethnic composition of Connecticut employment has made some notable shifts over the past two decades. The U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) dataset allows for a detailed view of the composition of employment in the state. The Connecticut Economic Digest has previously featured this dataset in May and December of 2019 in articles that looked at age cohort changes by industry and a detailed look at demographic breakdown of overall employment by firm size.

Those articles showed that the share of the Connecticut workforce over age 54 has doubled over twenty years with pronounced increases in major sectors such as Manufacturing and Healthcare & Social Assistance. The December 2019 article illustrated how cyclical employment changes and the demographic composition of employment vary by firm size. [ read more ]  

ccording to the most recent data published by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, the number of jobs in Connecticut decreased by 0.2 percent during 2019. Connecticut reversed the pattern of slow but steady employment growth since the Great Recession toward the end of 2019. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.5 percent of the state's employment total, decreased by 0.2 percent. Total government employment held steady year-over-year.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 3.0 percent, to $69,787, nearly double the improvement on the increase in 2018. In 2019, private sector wages increased by 3.3 percent to $70,554; government wages increased 1.1 percent to $64,855.

The number of business establishments continued their expansion, with a new total of 123,766, an increase of 1.4 percent over 2018. Total private establishments represented nearly all of the increase, reaching 120,419 in 2019. Government worksites increased 0.2 percent in the state, from 3,340 in 2018 to 3,347 in 2019. [ read more ]

onnecticut's housing market showed signs of strength in 2019 as new permits reached their second highest level since 2007 and home sales prices reached an eleven-year high. This article examines several factors contributing to the state's housing rebound.

Housing Production
According to data release from the Bureau of the Census, cities and towns in Connecticut authorized 5,854 single and multifamily homes with a total valuation of $1.354 billion in 2019. The level of production is the highest since 2015 and represents a 21.6% increase compared to 4,815 in 2018. Connecticut had the third highest percent gain among fifty states: New Jersey and Arkansas led with 30.6% and 25.0%, respectively.

In 2019, Fairfield County authorized the most permits with the largest share (39.7%), followed by New Haven County (24.8%) and Hartford County (13.5%). Both Litchfield and Middlesex counties had the smallest share (2.3%). Stamford, New Haven, Fairfield, Milford and Norwalk issued the most permits. Combined, they accounted for 42% of all housing units authorized last year. [ read more ]

What Commuter Rail Brings to Central Connecticut
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

enerational change for commuters arrived on June 18, 2018 as the Hartford Line passenger railroad, also known as CT Rail, began daily service between New Haven and Springfield, MA. Official rollout of the service began after a preview weekend so popular that trains had to intermittently stop taking passengers. The $768 million project came to life through a partnership among the Connecticut and Massachusetts state transportation departments, Amtrak, and several federal agencies. This article offers a brief look at CT Rail's vision and origin, its ridership, and development plans in various stages of completion since CT Rail's inception two summers ago. [ read more ]

he global impact of COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented pause to economies all over the world. In April, U.S. payroll employment fell by 20.5 million jobs with declines reported in all 50 states. Connecticut lost a historic 266,300 net jobs, a -15.9% decline in just one month.

As of early May 2020, approximately 300,000 Connecticut workers were receiving benefits. Compared to the 2009-2010 recession, 2020 claimants are more likely to be female, are younger on average, and are more likely to have worked in Accommodation & Food Service, Retail Trade, or Health Care & Social Assistance. The 2009-2010 recession saw the largest number of claims in manufacturing and construction. Workers in these industries are, on average, older and more likely to be male than workers in the economy as a whole. [ read more ]

2018 Unemployment Rate by Town
By Jungmin Charles Joo, Department of Labor and Dana Placzek, Research, Department of Labor

n 2019, the annual average statewide unemployment rate was 3.7%, down from 4.1% in 2018. For the ninth year, most municipalities experienced a decline in their unemployment rate, although a little fewer than fell in 2018.

2018 to 2019
Of 169 cities and towns in the state, the unemployment rate fell in 162, rose in 5, while 2 were unchanged in 2019. On the other hand, 164 were down, 1 was up, and 4 remained the same in 2018. Roxbury had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.1%, while the residents of Hartford experienced the highest rate of 6.6% last year (see table on page 3 for the complete town data). Overall, a total of 124 cities and towns had jobless rates below the 2019 statewide figure of 3.7%, 35 had rates above it, and 10 had rates equal to it. By comparison, 128 cities and towns had rates below the 2018 statewide average of 4.1%, 35 above it, and 6 were the same.

Of the five largest cities in the state with a 2010 Census population of 100,000 or more, Stamford had the lowest unemployment rate of 3.3% in 2019. Hartford posted the highest jobless rate among the large cities at 6.6%. All five cities experienced over-the-year unemployment rate decreases. The map on page 4 also shows the unemployment rates for each town in 2019. [ read more ]

he whole world has changed in the few short weeks since we completed the latest short term projections in February 2020. At the time, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower than it had been at any time since the late 1960s and Connecticut jobs were growing. Since then the COVID-19 health crisis and the related shutdown of nonessential businesses caused a drastic shift in the employment outlook. Many leading analysts1 have declared that there is a 100% chance that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. One indicator of change is claims for unemployment insurance. As of April 11, 16 million American workers were collecting unemployment insurance with another 4 million filing claims the following week.

Connecticut's economy has also been affected by the health crisis and the shutdowns and has seen a large increase in unemployment claims and will clearly suffer a recession along with the nation. What we don't know (what no one knows) is how long it will last. Therefore, we are presenting below our previously-completed short term projections for employment in the 2nd quarter of 2021. This represents a "best case" scenario - that while severe, the recession will be short and the national and Connecticut economies will bounce back early next year so that by next summer we'll be back on track. We will then discuss the risks to this outlook which are, unfortunately, all on the downside.

Connecticut Employment Projections 2019-2021
In February 2020, the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research projected that Connecticut's overall employment increase by 0.4% from 2019Q2 to 2021Q2. Employment was projected to increase in Connecticut from 1,815,649 to 1,822,595 with Health Care, Transportation & Warehousing, and Social Assistance adding the most jobs.

The projected two year employment growth of 6,950 jobs is comparable to many northeast states. Almost every other New England state had projected growth of 1.5% or less. Massachusetts' 2.3% projected two-year growth differentiates it from the rest of the region and is driven in large part by its Boston metropolitan area. Additionally, neighboring New York projected 2.0% growth through 2021. [ read more ]  

o assess Connecticut's export status, The Connecticut Economic Digest conducts an annual review of the state's export performance. A review of the state's 2019 export position follows.

National
Two notable events impacted trade in 2019: the Boeing 737 Max production shutdown and tariffs. Boeing is the largest U.S. exporter, and commercial aircraft is the biggest U.S. commodity export. The 737 Max, which went from slowed production to complete suspension, continues to have ripple effects. Not only did the biggest supplier to Boeing, Spirit AeroSystems, lay off 2,800 people, but the suspension will have likely ramifications on industrial production, trade, GDP, the aerospace supply chain and delivery of parts and inventory.

U.S.-China trade friction dominated the headlines for a good part of 2019. The back and forth imposition of tariffs clearly impacted certain sectors. After a long period of negotiation, Phase I of the Economic and Trade Agreement between the U.S. and China was signed in January 2020.

It should be noted that while news of the COVID-19 coronavirus began to circulate in late 2019, its impact is expected to be reflected in 2020 data. [ read more ]

Disability and Employment
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

s the private-sector labor market has recovered more jobs than it lost in the 2008-2010 recession, people with disabilities, who comprise five percent of the state workforce, continue integrating with the labor market. This article takes a brief look at the economic geography of people with disabilities showing where they live, the economic sectors in which they work, and how their earnings compare with those of their non-disabled peers. Programs and services that provide opportunities for people with disabilities to attach to the labor force and retain employment are briefly discussed as well.

Population and Geography
The US Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) 2017 five-year average statistics show that 3.43% of working people with disabilities have one or more disabilities. This includes 0.71% of the employed work force with a vision impairment or legal blindness. About 86% of people with disabilities have a physical impairment including hearing loss or an ambulatory disability. People with one or more disabilities have self-care difficulties (6.5% of disabled workers), independent living difficulty (16.7%), or cognitive difficulty (33.1%). [ read more ]

mployment fell in Connecticut for the first time since 2010 and the overall economy weakened in 2019. After having increased for eight straight years, the revised annual average total nonfarm employment fell slightly last year, although the unemployment rate continued to fall since 2011. While real personal income continued to increase for the last six years, the value of the annual diffusion index of 58 state economic indicators dropped to the lowest level since 2010, indicating a slowing but still positive level of growth.

Nonfarm Employment
After our latest annual revision (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data), in 2019 Connecticut actually lost employment for the first time since 2010 (-3,300 jobs, -0.2%). In 2018, 2,600 jobs were created (+0.2%). By contrast, employment grew much faster in the nation (1.6% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019). Employment growth appears to be slowing nationally and in our neighbor states partially due to very low unemployment rates.

The past three years of Connecticut's employment recovery has been the slowest of the last eight years. In fact, the current 2010-2020 monthly job recovery rate has been trending downward, averaging below 0.1 percent throughout most of the 120-month employment recovery period to date. In contrast, the 2003-2008 recovery period showed a rising recovery rate, and during the 1993-2000 period, the monthly job growth rate rose steadily, increasing above the 0.1 percent threshold in later years of its employment recovery. Slowing growth rates should be expected this long into a recovery. [ read more ]  

onnecticut lost 48 lives to work injuries in 2018, for a rate of 2.8 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. An increase from 2017's count of 35, it is higher than Connecticut's annual average of 39 work-related deaths.

The nation lost 5,250 lives to workplace injuries in 2018, an increase from 2017's 5,147 deaths. However, the fatal injury rate remained unchanged from 2017 - 3.5 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. The highest loss was seen in Texas with 488 deaths, followed by California with 422 deaths and Florida with 332 deaths. High rates were recorded in Wyoming (11.5) and Alaska (9.9). Delaware recorded both the lowest loss and the lowest rate with 7 deaths and a rate of 1.6.

Industry
Nationally, the construction industry recorded the highest number of deaths at 1,008, followed by transportation and warehousing with 874 deaths. The highest rate by industry was seen in truck transportation, with 28.3 deaths per 100,000 full time equivalent workers.

With 13 deaths, the construction industry had the highest number of deaths in Connecticut, accounting for 27.1 percent of 2018's deaths. Administration and support and waste management and remediation services came in second with 12 deaths, accounting for 25.0 percent of total deaths. With an overall rate of 2.8, Connecticut saw a rate of 10.9 in construction, 10.2 in transportation and utilities, and 5.4 in professional and business services. Rates for other industry sectors did not meet publishing criteria. The government sector recorded 2 deaths. [ read more ]  

lobal and U.S. Overview
The global economy slowed somewhat in 2019 with growth anticipated to be approximately 3.0 percent - the slowest pace since the global financial crisis. There is expected to be a slight uptick in growth in 2020 to 3.4 percent, yet still below the 2017 level of 3.6 percent.

Several countries will follow the overall global economic trend with slightly higher growth rates in 2020, including Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada. Other countries, such as the United States, Spain, Japan, and China, are expected to continue to soften.

There are several factors contributing to this economic deceleration, including prolonged trade tensions; macroeconomic strains in several emerging markets; and structural factors, such as low productivity growth and aging demographics in advanced economies.

In the United States, part of the slowdown is due to the end of the temporary boost from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but 2020 growth is also expected to be weaker due to prolonged uncertainty regarding trade and higher tariffs, which has led to decreased investment. These factors are having a particularly heavy impact on manufacturing, while services are faring better.  [ read more ]

onnecticut employment has been growing since the end of the great recession nearly a decade ago. In recent years, industries such as manufacturing, health care, and warehousing have driven overall growth. In addition, there have been other important trends in Connecticut's labor market. For example, in the ten year period from 2007 to 2017, employment at private firms in Connecticut has gotten older, less male, and less white. At the same time, the share with a Bachelor's degree or more has fallen. Employment in firms with 500 or more employees has increased while employment at smaller firms has fallen.

DEMOGRAPHICS OF EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
Private sector job growth was quite modest from 2007 to 2017, a period that spanned the great recession. However, the number of workers aged 55 and over increased 37% in that ten year period. The portion aged 55 and over increased from less than 20% to more than 25% of all workers. The number of workers aged 25 to 54 declined as the last of the baby boom aged into the 55 and over group while the number under age 25 declined due to lower birthrates in recent decades and a drop in labor force participation for those aged 16 to 18.

Looking at other demographic factors, in each of the past two decades, the number of males employed has decreased slightly while the number of females increased a bit. By 2017 the number of females employed slightly outnumbered the number of males employed in private sector payroll jobs. At the same time, the number of white and not Hispanic or Latino workers has declined while all other groups have seen increases with Black or African-American employment up 18% and employment of Hispanic or Latino workers up 28% in the ten years from 2007 to 2017. [ read more ]  

onnecticut's economic performance last year was the best in terms of ranking in eight years. After annual revisions, Connecticut ranked 37th out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) in the State Economic Indexes (SEI) in 2018, up from the 38th position in 2017.

For the first time, South Carolina came in first in the nation with the highest index of 171.3 last year, while Alaska continued to place last (109.4). Colorado, which had ranked number one for three years in a row, fell to 13th place in 2018. Our state's index of 136.9 was below the nationwide value of 148.0.

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See October 2019 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes for all 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2018 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state that can be compared and ranked. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate. [ read more ]  

Download SEI 2010-2018 data.xlsx

onnecticut's overall economy bounced back strongly in 2018 after having slowed down in 2016 and 2017, based on the index performances of cities and towns. The indexes on page 3 give a broad measure of business and resident economic well-being of each town, allowing comparisons among them.

The CTEI Methodology
The Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (CTEI) were introduced four years ago and are released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the composite indexes of all 169 municipalities in the state to measure each town or city's overall economic health, which then can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective. Four annual average town economic indicators were used as components, which are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered annual average wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number of employees on payroll in the establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under the unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all the employees in each town. [ read more ]

Download CTEI 2005-2018 data.xlsx

onnecticut's housing market experienced growth in 2018 with many economic indicators posting gains over the prior year. In this annual review, we will examine the state's housing industry from the permits, sales and price perspectives.

Housing Production
According to data released by the Bureau of the Census, cities and towns in Connecticut authorized a total of 4,815 single and multifamily homes with a total valuation of $1.112 billion in 2018. This level of production represents a 5.9% increase compared to 4,547 in 2017, and a 12.5% decrease compared to 5,504 in 2016.

New Haven County regained the lead in the number of permit authorizations since 2010, with the largest share (24.2%) in 2018, followed by Hartford County (23.6%) and Fairfield County (22.8%). Litchfield County had the smallest share (2.6%). [ read more ]

Redevelopment for Workforce Housing
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

he vision of Connecticut as a prosperous, inviting, and invigorating place to live, work, and play is brought to life by plans, places, and the networks that connect them. The most recent annual gathering of southern New England's land use planners, economic development professionals, and scholars featured ideas, plans, and projects of great place making. Place making is fundamental to bringing growth and prosperity that business, government, and education leaders speak about when they talk of making Connecticut competitive with its neighbors. [ read more ]

ccording to the most recent data published by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, the number of jobs in Connecticut increased by 0.2 percent during 2018. Connecticut continues to show slow but steady employment growth since the Great Recession. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.4 percent of the state's employment total, increased by 0.4 percent. Total government employment decreased by 1.1 percent year-over-year.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 1.6 percent, to $67,744, an improvement on the increase in 2017. In 2018, private sector wages increased by 1.5 percent to $68,305; government wages increased 2.4 percent to $64,126.

The number of business establishments continued their expansion, with a new total of 122,067, an increase of 2.0 percent over 2017. Total private establishments represented the entirety of the increase, reaching 118,727 in 2018. Government worksites decreased 1.0 percent in the state, from 3,374 in 2017 to 3,340 in 2018. [ read more ]

he May 2019 Connecticut Economic Digest outlined top-line trends in Connecticut population, labor force participation, and employment to population ratios. As noted, overall labor force participation and employment to population ratios are up since the lows of 8 to 10 years ago. During this period, the median age in Connecticut increased to 40.9 by 2017, the 6th highest in the country. As the age composition of the overall Connecticut population changes, so Does the labor force. All industries are affected by population changes but some are facing particular challenges as a larger proportion of the workforce is nearing retirement age. [ download article only ]

The Higher Education / Workforce Report
By Patrick.Flaherty, Assistant Director of Research, Department of Labor

ost graduates of Connecticut's public colleges and universities work in Connecticut. Graduates from the wide range of programs are working in nearly every industry in our state. Shortly after leaving college, many graduates are employed in retail and food service. However, as time passes they are more likely to move to other industries such as manufacturing and health care. Average wages rise significantly in the years following graduation. [ download article only ]

he craft beer industry, consisting of microbreweries, brewpubs, regional craft breweries, and contract brewing companies, has really established its calling in America over the last ten years. Overall total brewery employment in the U.S. (NAICS* code 31212), which also includes the large brand-name breweries, has grown from under 25,000 in the first quarter of 2010 to 81,180 in September 2019. This exciting brewery job growth is clearly being led by the craft beer industry portion. In Connecticut, with no large commercial breweries and mainly consisting of the craft beer industry segment, employment has grown from less than 15 in the first quarter of 2010 to close to 800 in December 2019 (780 jobs from 63 establishments). Notice the hockey stick or boomerang-like job growth since coming out the Great Financial Crisis shown in the chart. [ download article only ]

2018 Unemployment Rate by Town
By Jungmin Charles Joo, Department of Labor and Dana Placzek, Research, Department of Labor

n 2018, the annual average statewide unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from 4.7% in 2017. For the eighth year, most municipalities experienced a decline in their unemployment rate, even more than fell in 2017.

2017 to 2018
Of 169 cities and towns in the state, the unemployment rate fell in 165, rose in 1, while 3 were unchanged in 2018. On the other hand, 152 were down, 11 were up, and 6 remained the same in 2017. Washington had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.4%, while the residents of Hartford experienced the highest rate of 7.0% last year (see table on page 3 for the complete town data). Overall, a total of 130 cities and towns had jobless rates below the 2018 statewide figure of 4.1%, 33 had rates above it, and six had rates equal to it. By comparison, 122 cities and towns had rates below the 2017 statewide average of 4.7%, 37 above it, and 10 were the same. [ download article only ]

onnecticut has many strengths, including its highly-educated workforce, growth of high-paying fields such as manufacturing, a high concentration of world-class universities, and its comparative affordability to highcost major metropolitan areas in neighboring states. However, job growth has been slower than the nation as a whole, and slower than in our neighbor states.

Connecticut is projected to continue to add jobs over the next two years with many of the trends observed over the past two years continuing through 2020. Connecticut's overall economy improved in 2018 (see the March 2019 Digest) with the eighth consecutive year of employment growth. Even though the past two years had the slowest growth since the end of the recession, Connecticut's unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2002, while the employment to population ratio hit a ten year high with the labor force participation rate at its highest level in eight years.

The unemployment rate is low despite slow job growth because our working-age population has also increased at a slower pace - up 5.2% over ten years compared to a 9.9% increase nationally. To put it simply, our slower population growth is resulting in slower employment growth. [ download article only ]  

he dynamics of international trade is multifaceted and intertwined with geopolitics, the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, U.S. demand for imported goods, tariffs and free trade agreements (new and revised). Trade's importance as a driver of economic growth is significant, as exports contribute to economic health and job creation.

To assess Connecticut's export status, The Connecticut Economic Digest conducts an annual review of the state's export performance. A review of the state's 2018 export position follows.  [ download article only ]  

Complete Streets are Sweet
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

ecause every trip begins and ends on foot, universal access to work, education, and recreation is the guiding principle that gave rise to complete streets, the design and operation of streets that are safe for all users inclusive of people with disabilities and public transit users as well as motorized and non-motorized vehicle operators. Since 2009, the Department of Transportation (ConnDOT), guided by its Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Board (Bike and Ped Board), is bringing safer commuting to Connecticut's cities and towns. This article illustrates some benefits attributable to complete streets along with a brief description of how ConnDOT supports municipal efforts to bring complete streets to their residents.  [ download article only ]  

lthough employment growth slowed in Connecticut, the overall economy did pick up in 2018. The revised total nonfarm employment increased for the eighth consecutive year, while the unemployment rate has been falling since 2011. Moreover, real personal income has increased for the last five years, and the value of annual diffusion index of 57 state economic indicators rose higher than in 2016 and 2017.

Nonfarm Employment
After our latest annual revision, Connecticut gained (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data) 1,600 jobs (+0.1%) in 2018, which was fewer than the 3,500 jobs (+0.2%) in 2017. By contrast, employment grew much faster in the nation (1.6% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018).

The past two years of Connecticut's employment recovery has been the slowest of the last eight years. In fact, the current 2010-2019 monthly job recovery rate has been trending downward, averaging below 0.1 percent throughout the most of its 107-month employment recovery so far through January 2019. In contrast, the 2003-2008 recovery period showed a rising recovery rate, and during the 1993-2000 period, the monthly job growth rate rose steadily, increasing above the 0.1 percent threshold in later years of its employment recovery. [ download article only ]  

onnecticut lost 35 lives to work injuries in 2017. An increase from 2016's count of 28, it is still below Connecticut's annual average of 39 work-related deaths. At 1.9 deaths per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers, Connecticut had one of the lowest state rates. New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, all with a rate of 1.6, were the only states with lower rates. While our lower number and rate is primarily due to low employment in high-risk industries, it cannot be stressed enough that even one work-related death is one too many.

Industry
The nation lost 5,147 lives to workplace injuries in 2017. The fatal injury rate decreased to 3.5 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers from 3.6 in 2016. The highest loss was seen in Texas with 534 deaths, followed by California with 376 and New York with 313 deaths. Rhode Island recorded the lowest loss with 8 deaths. High rates were recorded in Alaska (10.2) and North Dakota (10.1).

Nationally, the construction industry recorded the highest number of deaths at 971, followed by transportation and warehousing with 882. The highest rate by industry was seen in truck transportation, with 28.0 deaths per 100,000 full time equivalent workers. [ download article only ]  

lobal and U.S. Overview

The global economy in 2019 should continue its track of steady growth since mid-2016. However, the growth has peaked in some major economies, and risks of slower growth have risen. The World Bank projects a 3.7 percent growth rate in world output for this year, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than previously forecasted.

Trends to note include:

• U.S.: Economic growth is still strong due to the effects of federal tax cuts, but 2019 growth is expected to be weaker as a result of uncertain trade environments, including the tariff negotiation with China.
• Europe: Affected by the ongoing Brexit negotiations, growth projections for the Euro area and the UK are also adjusted downward.
• Emerging Markets: Anticipated higher oil prices raise the growth prospects of many energy- exporting countries, but Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Turkey are affected by downward pressures such as geopolitical uncertainty or worsening financial conditions.
• Asia: China and several Asian economies are expected to experience weaker growth in 2019 under the shadow of the recent trade disputes.

Across the world, the stagnant growth in working-age population and labor productivity foreshadows a more limited potential for long-term global economic growth. Coupled with fading monetary stimulation, the growth in most advanced economies is likely to decline to a rate slower than the average level before the global financial crisis in 2008.[ download article only ]  

any believe that the economy and particularly the labor markets are being transformed because of the ability to order everything from a ride to a home repair via a smartphone app. Headlines such as "The gig economy workforce will double in four years" and academic papers with titles such as "The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States" have promoted this idea. Others have raised doubts. A recent New York Times story stated, "You can see the gig economy everywhere but in the statistics" while the Conference Board recently issued a report titled "Contrary to the Hype-Real Trends in Nontraditional Work" which stated "in 2017, the share of nontraditional workers was no different than it was 20 years ago." The data do not show a clear picture. [ download article only ] 

Is a Job Shortage Becoming a Labor Shortage?
By Matthew Krzyzek, Economist, Department of Labor

he total count of job openings exceeded the total number of unemployed workers in the U.S. for the first time on record. As of September 2018 there were more than seven million job openings compared to six million unemployed. While there is no equivalent state level statistic for job openings, there is evidence that Connecticut is experiencing a similar trend with a falling unemployment rate and a large number of job postings. Further examination of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) coupled with additional data sources such as the jobs postings available from Help Wanted Online (HWOL) can contextualize the labor market and explain how the Connecticut economy is doing. [ download article only ] 

or the third year in a row, Colorado came in first in the nation with the highest index of 165.7 last year, while Alaska ranked last (105.9). Our state's index of 128.7 was below the nationwide value of 139.1.

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See October 2018 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes for all 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2017 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state that can be compared and ranked. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate. [ read more ]  

Download SEI 2010-2017 data.xlsx

onnecticut experienced continued overall economic improvement in 2017, based on the index performances of cities and towns. The indexes on page 3 give a broad measure of business and resident economic well-being of each town, allowing comparisons among them.

The CTEI Methodology
The Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (CTEI) were introduced three years ago and are released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the composite indexes of all 169 municipalities in the state to measure each town or city's overall economic health, which then can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective. Four annual average town economic indicators were used as components, which are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered annual average wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number of employees on payroll in the establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under the unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all the employees in each town. [ read more ]  

Download CTEI 2005-2017 data.xlsx

onnecticut's employment is projected to increase by more than 110,000 jobs over the ten-year period ending in 2026. This 5.9% increase is a bit slower than the 7.4% projected for the U.S., but both state and national projections assume full employment in 2026. With the unemployment rate currently low, total job growth is limited by growth in the population/labor force. Every two years, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces 10 year projections of the U.S. labor force and employment by industry and occupation. The latest projections are for the period 2016 to 2026. This process is replicated at the state level to produce projections that provide a detailed overview of the expected direction of labor markets in Connecticut.

U.S. Labor Force
The overall U.S. labor force is projected to increase by 10.5 million workers from 2016 to 2026 (a 0.6% annualized growth rate) with increases of 4.5 million men and nearly 6 million women. The labor force is projected to be older and more diverse. The number of white non-Hispanics in the labor force is projected to decline by 2.5 million, while the number of workers of Hispanic origin is projected to increase by over 8 million. The number of Black or African-American workers will be up by 1.9 million and the number of Asian workers up by 2.6 million. The number of workers aged 55 and over is projected to increase by 6.4 million, while those aged 25 to 54 will increase by 5.4 million. The number of workers under age 25 is expected to decrease by 1.3 million. [ read more ]  

ccording to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, the number of jobs in Connecticut increased by 0.2 percent during 2017.1 This is now the seventh consecutive year of employment growth since the Great Recession. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.4 percent of the state's employment total, increased by 0.5 percent. Total government employment decreased by 1.6 percent year-over-year.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 1.2 percent, to $66,648, double the increase in 2016. In 2017, private sector wages increased by 1.0 percent to $67,278; government wages increased 1.9 percent to $62,648.

The number of business establishments expanded for the sixth consecutive year, with a new total of 119,669, an increase of 2.0 percent over 2016. Total private establishments represented the entirety of the increase, reaching 116,295 in 2017. Government worksites decreased 0.6 percent in the state, from 3,393 in 2016 to 3,374 in 2017. [ read more ]

onnecticut's housing sector in 2017 continued to exhibit mixed results mirroring the state's modest economic recovery. In this article, we will examine several aspects of state's housing industry including permits, sales and prices. [ read more ]  

What is Ailing Connecticut's Economy? Is it a City Problem? Is it a Sector Problem?
By Manisha Srivastava, Connecticut Office of Policy and Management

onnecticut's economic recovery from the 2007-2010 recession has lagged not only the country but also the region. Table 1 compares Connecticut's job growth and gross state product growth (GSP - a measure of goods and services produced within a region, utilized as a broad measure of economic activity) to regional states and the nation. The nation recovered jobs lost as a result of the recession by May 2014, and has since experienced job growth of 12.5%. Connecticut's job growth since the recession at 4.6% is close to Maine (5.0%) and Vermont (5.4%), but is one of the few states yet to recover all jobs lost during the recession. On GSP, Connecticut is the only state to continue losing economic activity even since the end of the recession (-3.3%). In fact, in inflation-adjusted, or real GSP terms - Connecticut's economy is at the same level it was in 2004. This lackluster economic growth has resulted in anemic revenue growth in the state, leading to years of budgetary constraints. [ read more ]  

alking or bicycling to work without competition from speeding motorists is just one benefit of the Complete Streets movement that is making its effects felt in Connecticut. Since the passage of 2009 legislation, the state Department of Transportation (ConnDOT) and its advisors have been working to bring a safer commute together with Transit Oriented Development (TOD) to Connecticut's cities and towns. In addition to a brief outline of Complete Streets principles and benefits, this article describes what its application looks like in two cities and one suburb. [ read more ]  

2017 Unemployment Rate by Town
By Jungmin Charles Joo, Department of Labor and Dana Placzek, Research, Department of Labor

n 2017, for the seventh year, most municipalities experienced a decline in their unemployment rate, but fewer dropped than in 2016.

2016 to 2017
Out of 169 cities and towns in the state, the rate fell in 152, rose in 9, and 8 were unchanged in 2017. On the other hand, 159 were down, 3 were up, and 7 remained the same in 2016. Canaan had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.8%, while the residents of Hartford experienced the highest rate of 8.1% last year. See table on page 3 for the complete town data. The annual average statewide unemployment rate in 2017 was 4.7%, down from 5.1% in 2016. Overall, a total of 126 cities and towns had jobless rates below the statewide figure of 4.7%, 37 had rates above it, and six had rates equal to it last year. By comparison, there were 124 cities and towns that had rates below the statewide average of 5.1%, 39 above it, and six the same.  [ read more ]

urrent Situation
Connecticut is off to a good start in 2018. As reported in the March Digest, Connecticut's economic recovery slowed in 2017, but the first quarter of 2018 has shown significant job gains. While data are preliminary and subject to significant revision, first quarter employment rose more than 8,700 jobs from the fourth quarter of 2017 and more than 7,200 from the first quarter of 2017. Private sector employment gained 9,400 from the fourth quarter with Health Care & Social Assistance up 2,500 (+3,800 from the first quarter of 2017), Accommodation and Food Services up 1,300 (+900 from the 2017 Q1) and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services up over 1,000. Manufacturing was a bright spot in 2017 - the first quarter of 2018 was up 5,100 from the first quarter of 2017 with most of the gains in Durable Goods.

In 2017, the average seasonally adjusted monthly jobs gain was just 400 jobs per month compared to 1,500 jobs per month for the first three months of 2018. Though this pace of growth is not likely to continue - and is subject to revision - the Connecticut economy was showing positive momentum as we headed into spring. [ read more ]  

017 was a year in which international relations dominated the news headlines. Whether it was talk of the renegotiation of NAFTA and other free trade agreements, the status of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, currency manipulation and commodity dumping, the threat of a nuclear armed North Korea or entry and/or withdrawal from global pacts, geopolitics was front and center. Recently, President Trump signed an order on new tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. With such tariff increases, analysis must happen as to the potential impact on the defense industry, its subcontractors and supply chain. Will trade partners retaliate? What will be the impact on sales? As a defense-oriented state, Connecticut must monitor the evolution of such discussions. In the meantime, a review of the state's 2017 export position follows. [ read more ]  

Connecticut's Path to More Affordable Housing
By Al Sylvestre, Research Analyst, Department of Labor

ecuring affordable housing in Connecticut's expensive residential market is a significant challenge for the state's workforce. What follows is a brief overview of some of the conundrum's components and some methods land use planners and policy makers employ to smooth the path to more affordable housing.

Challenges
According to the Partnership for Strong Communities, Connecticut has the sixth highest housing cost in the US while nearly a third of the population in 102 of its 169 cities and towns are spending at least 30% of their incomes on housing as shown on the map. As the housing cost burden rises with age, more households headed by persons over age 60 in a state with the sixth oldest population in the nation will find their incomes stretched more thinly. As people with disabilities and those above age 60 re-enter or remain in the workforce longer, access to housing becomes more difficult because: [ read more ]

s predicted this time last year, Connecticut's economy did continue to improve in 2017, and at a slower pace than in 2016 (March 2017 article). For the seventh year in a row, the revised total nonfarm employment increased, while the unemployment rate fell. However, real personal income decreased for the last two years, and more economic indicators pointed in negative directions than in 2016.

Nonfarm Employment
After our annual revision, Connecticut gained (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data) 1,800 jobs (+0.1%) in 2017, which was fewer than the 4,800 jobs (+0.3%) in 2016. By contrast, employment grew much faster at 1.8% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017 in the nation.

Last year's Connecticut employment recovery was the slowest in the last seven years. In fact, the current 2010-2018's monthly job recovery rate has been trending downward from the beginning, averaging below 0.1 percent throughout the most of its 95-month employment recovery so far. In contrast, the 2003-2008 recovery period showed rising recovery rate, and during the 1993-2000 period, the monthly job growth rate had risen steadily, increasing above the 0.1 percent threshold in later years of its employment recovery. [ read more ]  

onnecticut lost 28 lives to work injuries in 2016, decreasing from 2015's count of 44. This is the smallest loss since 2008. It is also below Connecticut's annual average of 39 work-related deaths. At 1.6 deaths per 100,000 fulltime equivalent workers, Connecticut had the lowest state rate, primarily due to lower employment in high-risk industries. However, it cannot be stressed enough that even one work-related death is one too many.

Industry
The nation lost 5,190 lives to workplace injuries in 2016, the most since 2008. The fatal injury rate increased to 3.6 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers from 3.4 in 2015. The biggest loss was seen in Texas with 545 work-related fatalities, followed by California with 376 and Florida with 309 deaths. Rhode Island recorded the fewest, with 9. High rates were recorded in Wyoming (12.3) and Alaska (10.6). Wyoming's highest rate was in the transportation and utilities industry, at 46.8. Alaska recorded a rate of 44.5 in manufacturing and 42.0 in transportation and utilities.

Nationally, the construction industry recorded the biggest number of fatalities at 991, followed by transportation and warehousing with 825. The highest rate by industry was seen in truck transportation, with 25.6 deaths per 100,000 full time equivalent workers. [ read more ]  

mid numerous uncertainties, the outlook for the Connecticut economy in 2018 has positive signs.

The World: Strengthening Economic Activity as a Whole
Economic activity for the world as a whole is increasing, with global growth projected at 3.7 percent in 2018. Positive trends in the Euro Area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia offset risks for the United States and the United Kingdom. Trends to note include:

• Euro Area: Growth in this region is estimated to rise to 1.9% in 2018.
• China: Growth is projected to be 6.5 percent in 2018 as authorities continue an expansionary policy with high public investment.
• Russia: Projected growth is 1.8 percent in 2018.
• U.K.: Growth is projected to be 1.5 percent.

The Nation: Tax Reform and Rebuilding From Hurricanes
The International Monetary Fund is anticipating that U.S. gross domestic product will increase by 2.3 percent in 2018. U.S. tax reform will provide a slight lift to overall economic growth, as will the rebuilding of areas affected by the hurricanes in the South. Tax reform that lowers rates on corporate and personal income should increase business investment and consumer consumption during 2018. [ read more ]  

The Connecticut State Data Center at the University of Connecticut recently released population projections for Connecticut and its towns through 2040. The projections suggest a slowing of population growth but do not show an exodus of young people from Connecticut. Declines in the younger population groups are driven by a low birth rate while migration out of state is concentrated in older age groups. Nevertheless, the number of senior citizens will increase while the school-aged population will decline. Growth will be uneven across cities and towns with some (particularly the largest cities) gaining significant population while others decline. Some of the smallest towns are projected to reverse part of the strong growth they have experienced in recent decades.

Statewide Overview
Connecticut's population increased by over 255,000 from 1970 to 1990 and added an additional 300,000 from 1990 to 2015, a 9.3% increase. Population growth is projected to grow just 1.7% in the 25 years from 2015 to 2040, less than 20% of the growth rate of the previous 25 years. Focusing on the most recent 15 year period and comparing it to the next shows a similar pattern. Population grew 5.5% from 2000 to 2015 but is projected to grow just 1.1% from 2015 to 2030. While these projections are not predictions of what will happen (unforeseen events such as changes in the economy could affect these projections), they are carefully calculated projections based on fertility rates, survival rates, domestic migration, international migration, and college migration. [ read more ]  

ightly or wrongly, Connecticut's job growth performance is often talked about in the context of "winning" or "losing" to other parts of the country. This article uses the location quotient measure to begin to address this issue by using national Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data to measure relative job growth from and to Connecticut over time. According to the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, location quotients are ratios that allow an area's distribution of employment by industry, ownership, and size class to be compared to a reference area's distribution.[ read more ]  

onnecticut ranked 32nd out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) in the State Economic Indexes (SEI) in 2016, moving up from the 39th position in 2015. In fact, last year's overall economic performance was the best in terms of the ranking in six years. Colorado, once again, ranked first in the nation with the highest index last year (145.3), while Wyoming came in last (102.6). Our state's index of 120.5 was below the nationwide value of 124.5.

SEI: Methodology
Applying the same components and methodology of the Connecticut Town Economic Indexes (See September 2017 issue), the Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research also developed the State Economic Indexes, an annual composite index of each of the 50 states and DC. With recently available annual average data from the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, along with the revised annual average unemployment rate from Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), annual SEI is reestimated for the 2010-2016 period.

These indexes provide a measure of the overall economic strength of each state that can be compared and ranked. Four annual average state economic indicators were used as components: 1. the number of the total covered business establishments, 2. total covered employment, 3. real covered wages, and 4. the unemployment rate. [ read more ]  

he Connecticut Town Economic Index (CTEI) showed the state's cities and towns experienced further economic improvement in 2016, though at a slower pace than in 2015.

CTEI: Methodology: The CTEI was introduced two years ago and is being released annually. The Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research developed the Connecticut Town Economic Index (CTEI), an annual composite index of all 169 cities and towns in the state. This index measures each town or city's overall economic health, which can be ranked and compared to others to gain perspective of its performance each year. Four annual average town economic indicators were used as components, which are total covered business establishments, total covered employment, inflation-adjusted covered wages, and the unemployment rate.

Establishments are the physical work units located in the municipality. Employment is the number of employees on payroll in the establishments that are located in the town. Wages are the aggregate payroll pay divided by the total average employment. These three measures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program and include all those who are covered under the unemployment insurance law, thus capturing nearly 100 percent of all the employees in each town.[ read more ]  

he number of jobs covered by Connecticut Unemployment Insurance (UI) increased by 0.2 percent during 2016, according to most recent data published from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. This increase continues the trend started in 2011. Total private industry employment, constituting 86.1 percent of the state's employment total, increased by 0.5 percent. Total government employment decreased by 1.4 percent year-over-year.

Average annual wages for all Connecticut jobs increased by 0.5 percent to $65,869, much like in 2015. In 2016, private sector wages increased by 0.4 percent to $66,579; government wages increased 0.9 percent to $61,458.

The number of business establishments expanded for the fifth year in a row, with a new total of 117,337, an increase of 0.9 percent over 2015. Total private establishments represented the entirety of the increase, reaching 113,944 in 2016. Government worksites decreased 0.9 percent in the state, from 3,425 in 2015 to 3,393 in 2016. [ read more ]

he housing market is an important sector of the economy, and so each year the Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) examines different aspects of Connecticut's housing industry. This article takes a look at permits, sales, prices and housing characteristics.

Home Sales and Prices
The state's real estate market continued its momentum into 2016 with another strong performance in the number of sales and an uptick in median prices.

According to the Warren Group report, Connecticut single-family home sales gained 8.7% from 29,644 in 2015 to 32,235 in 2016, the highest level in nine years. Condominium sales also gained ground with a 5.3% increase from 7,853 in 2015 to 8,267 in 2016. [ read more ]  

Robots in the Workplace: Threat or Asset?
By Patrick.Flaherty, Assistant Director of Research, Department of Labor

The latest breakthroughs in robotics and artificial intelligence have awakened fears that technological advances will lead to a large decrease in the overall level of employment and widespread unemployment. While there will be disruptions, and many occupations are at high risk of computerization over the next decade or two, the dynamic labor market continues to create opportunities for workers with the right skills and education.  [ read more ]  

nchor Institution Characteristics
Hospitals and institutions of higher learning deploying their considerable resources to promote neighborhood revitalization through economic development are known as anchor institutions.

Often acting in concert with nonprofit and public agencies, anchor institutions create opportunities for home ownership among low- and moderate-income households as well as supporting educational and apprenticeship programs for disadvantaged youth to prepare them for gainful employment.  [ read more ]  

Annual Unemployment Rate by Town, 2012-2016
By Jungmin Charles Joo, Department of Labor

y looking at the unemployment rates, we can see that Connecticut has experienced six years of economic recovery. Unemployment rates come from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. There are total of 169 cities and towns in Connecticut for which labor force estimates are produced monthly by the Connecticut Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For a brief explanation of the methodology of LAUS, see "Labor Force Estimates" on page 23. In the June 2016 Digest, 2011-2015 annual average town unemployment rate estimates were published. This year, revised 2012-2016 data are analyzed. [ read more ]

ach year, the Office of Research at the Connecticut Department of Labor produces short-term employment projections by industry and occupation. The projections are based on a careful analysis of the Connecticut economy and labor market.

CURRENT SITUATION
March of 2010 was the first month of payroll job growth after the great recession. Seven years later the Connecticut economy has regained 91,200 jobs or 77% of the 119,100 lost during the "great recession" as of March 2017. Overall employment growth has been dampened by the government sector which is down 14,000 jobs since February 2010. Private sector employment has fared significantly better having recovered 94% of the jobs lost during the downturn. [ read more ]  

eopolitical issues seemed to dominate 2016, whether it was the U.S. elections, Brexit, the Eurozone, free trade agreements, economic integration or national sovereignty. How these global issues impact trade, currency, and political relationships remains to be seen. In the meantime, to assess Connecticut's export status, a review of several key categories follows.

Annual Export Figures
In 2016, Connecticut's commodity exports totaled $14.4 billion, a 5.49% decrease from the $15.24 billion registered in 2015. It is important to note, as significant as commodity exports are, they omit service exports, for which the collection of data is inexact and unavailable at the state level. All U.S. states face this data gap. This means that export figures for a state like Connecticut- with a large concentration of insurance, financial and other services understate the true magnitude of its overall export value. [ read more ]  

A New Look at Earnings Inequality
By Patrick.Flaherty, Assistant Director of Research, Department of Labor

here is a great deal of literature documenting the increase in income inequality in the United States from the mid-1970s to the present. Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) show similar trends. In a recent presentation, Dr. James R. Spletzer of the U.S. Census Bureau reviewed this data and presented new findings using data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD). [ read more ]

lthough still yet to fully recover from the latest employment downturn, the Connecticut economy continued to improve in 2016, albeit at a slower pace. The total nonfarm employment increased for the sixth year. The unemployment rate fell for six consecutive years. Real personal income rose for the third year. Other economic indicators, however, were somewhat mixed.

Nonfarm Employment
After our annual revision, Connecticut gained (based on annual average, not seasonally adjusted data) 5,000 jobs (+0.3%) in 2016, which was fewer than the 12,600 jobs (+0.8%) in 2015. Last year's employment recovery was the slowest in the last six years. Nationally, employment grew faster at 2.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016. On a monthly seasonally adjusted basis through January 2017, Connecticut has now recovered 70% (+83,600) of the total nonfarm jobs lost during the March 2008-February 2010 employment recession (-119,100), while the total private sector regained 92% of its job loss. By contrast, the nation has not only fully regained all of the jobs lost during its January 2008-February 2010 employment downturn, but has also added 82% more jobs by January his year. [ read more ]  

onnecticut lost 44 lives to work injuries in 2015. With an increase from 2014's revised count of 35, this is the biggest loss since 2010. It is also above Connecticut's annual average of 39 work-related deaths. Nationally, a total of 4,836 fatal workplace injuries occurred in 2015. This was a slight increase from 2014's reported 4,821 deaths. However, the rate of fatalities per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers fell from 3.43 in 2014 to 3.38 in 2015. [ read more ]  

n analysis of recent data and trends indicates positive - albeit modest - growth in 2017 for the U.S. and Connecticut economies.
 

The Nation
The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2017 remains relatively optimistic based on technical data. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), except for Q1-2011 and Q1-2014 (when it slipped 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively), has now grown for seven years since the "Great Recession" ended in Q2-2009. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), or the constant dollar value of all goods and services produced by labor and capital located in the U.S., since Q2-2009 has averaged a 2.1% annual increase from the preceding quarter (Figure 1). After growing 2.5% in 2010, 1.6% in 2011, 2.2% in 2012, 1.7% in 2013, 2.4% in 2014, 2.6% in 2015, and an estimated 3.2% in Q3-2016, RGDP growth near 2.5% is likely in 2017. Major economic forecasters, including HIS Global Insight, The Conference Board, and the OECD, forecast that U.S. Real GDP will grow between 2 to 2 1/2% in 2017. Their outlook for 2016 was 3.4%, a little less than the previous year's forecast of 3.7%. The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) median 2017 outlook calls for 2.3% average annual growth. [ read more ]