Connecticut's economy improved further in 1996, producing an annual average of
21,300 more nonfarm jobs than in 1995. The rate of employment growth has been
steadily increasing since 1993, beginning up 0.3% that year and rising by
1.4% last year. (See Table 1.) This also means that with the
new 1996 benchmark data (See "Annual Revisions" for explanation), Connecticut now
has recovered almost half of the
total jobs lost during the 1989-92
recession. Connecticut's employment
growth, relative to 1980,
when compared to the nation's,
has been much weaker since 1988.
Employment
All the major industry divisions
added jobs in 1996, except for the manufacturing and finance,
insurance, and real estate (FIRE)
sectors. Services, the largest sector with close to half a million
employees and growing rapidly,
created 15,700 jobs over the year;
since 1992, almost 60,000 jobs
have been added, a 14% increase.
Health services, in which employment
in 1996 made up 32% of the
total services sector employment,
gained 2,100 new jobs over 1995.
The business services industries
(comprising 20%) added 8,200
more jobs.
Manufacturing, the third
largest industry division with
275,000 workers, has been
trimming down every year since 1985. Although 3,800
jobs were lost last year,
the pace of manufacturing
employment decline
has been slowing down
since 1992. The transportation
equipment
industry continued to
shed jobs, dropping
2,500 more in 1996. On
the other hand, industrial
machinery and
electronic equipment businesses added 400 and 500
jobs, respectively, last year.
The finance, insurance, and
real estate sector has also been
shrinking its workforce for the
last eight years in a row: between
1988 and 1996, there were
21,500 jobs (-14%) eliminated.
Last year alone, commercial
banks laid off 2,200 workers
while life insurance companies
eliminated 3,000 employees. But
despite the overall declining
trends in the sector, savings
institutions actually hired more
workers and so did fire, marine
and casualty insurance companies.
Total government
jobs grew
by 2,700 over the
year. Local
government
employment
increased by
4,600, mainly
due to the
Mohegan Sun
casino opening in
October of last year. Construction has shown
steady improvements over 1995
with 1,200 new jobs, while the
transportation and public utilities
(TPU) sector added 1,800 jobs in
1996. Both wholesale and retail
trade sectors grew also, adding
2,700 and 2,900 jobs, respectively.
(See Table 2 for more historical details.)
Labor Force
According to the newly benchmarked data, Connecticut's
labor force finally reversed direction
in 1996 after falling for four
consecutive years. About
1,720,000 persons were in the
labor force (employed and unemployed
who were looking for work)
in 1996, which was a 0.4%
increase over 1995. As the
economy improved, the number
of persons looking for work
increased causing the unemployment
rate to rise slightly to 5.7%
last year. This was, for the first time
since 1992, higher than the
nation's 5.4% rate.
Personal Income
Real personal income has
been increasing steadily over the
last three years. Although
growth was weaker than in 1995,
last year's earnings managed to
rise 1.7% faster than the inflation
rate. When compared to the
United States, Connecticut's income grew
faster from 1981 to 1989. Since
1990, however, our state's income
growth rate has been below the
nation's.
Other Economic Indicators
Business
starts registered
with the Secretary
of the State
increased by
13.2% in 1996
from the previous
year. Despite
the increases
in business terminations last year, over
13,000 net new businesses were
formed. Total tax collections also
rose by 3.4% over the year, with
real estate conveyance tax receipts
increasing by 12.7%.
Except for the 7.4% decline in the
number of major attraction
visitors, the tourism and travel
indicators showed further improvement
in 1996.
Will the Economic Growth Continue in 1997?
Historically, the number of
new car registrations processed
has led Connecticut employment trends by two or more years.
Registrations were declining for
three consecutive years before
the 1982 recession started. Two
years before the decline in the
aggregate employment level
beginning in 1989, registrations
were already signaling the turning
point. So the last two years
of consecutive drops in the
number of new cars being registered
through the Department of
Motor Vehicles is somewhat
disconcerting, although the levels
have still been higher than in the
early years (1992, 1993) of the
recovery.
Equally disturbing was the
trend in new housing permits
authorized by towns in the state.
After rising for three years,
permits started to drop again the
last two years in a row. Last
year's level was, in fact, about
the same as it was in 1991, the
worst year in the latest recession.
Conversely, initial claims for
unemployment benefits have
shown a continued decline for
the fifth year in 1996. The
claims figures have fallen to an
almost pre-recessionary 1989
level. The Hartford Help Wanted
Index also indicated the tightening
labor market in the state,
suggesting the improving business
conditions. Although not as
great as before the latest recession,
the demand for labor has
been rising steadily for the last
consecutive five years.
Connecticut's economy is
expected to continue to grow this
year based on the above indications.
Although no recession
appears in sight, some indicators
may be signaling the slowing of
employment growth in 1997.
|