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It is amazing that a majority
of Connecticut residents and many within the business
community are not aware of
Connecticut's international
maritime and aviation infrastructure
and its potential impact on
the economy. For example,
relatively few people know that
refrigerated ships arrive each
week at the Port of Bridgeport
with substantial loads of bananas
and other tropical fruit imported
from Central America.
Actually, there are three
major seaports in Connecticut
capable of handling waterborne
commerce: Bridgeport, New
Haven and New London. Ships
arriving from points around the
world ranging in size from 20,000
- 40,000 tons load and discharge
cargo at these ports.
The Port of New Haven is the
largest of the three ports, with
thirteen marine terminals of
various types. Logistec Connecticut,
Inc. and Gateway Terminal
operate the largest multipurpose
terminals with each operator
having multiple berths. Logistec
Connecticut specializes in the
handling of general and
"breakbulk" cargo such as steel,
steel products, copper, zinc,
aluminum, tin, forest products,
recyclables, containers, project
cargo, and heavy lifts. Gateway
Terminal specializes in the
handling of both dry and liquid
bulk cargo such as petroleum
products, scrap metal, pumice,
cement, salt and aggregates.
Substantial warehouse and tank
facilities are available at the Port
for storing both bulk and
breakbulk cargo ships with drafts
ranging up to 36 - 39 feet Mean
Low Water (MLW). Rail service is
available. New Haven Harbor is
also the jet fuel pipeline terminal
that serves Bradley International
Airport, and Westover Air Force
Base located in Chicopee, MA.
The Port of Bridgeport provides
facilities for deepwater shipping
and the Bridgeport-Port Jefferson
Ferry. Logistec Connecticut
operates the Cilco Terminal
which consists of two berths with
a draft of 33 feet MLW, 130,000
sq. ft. of dry storage space, and
85,000 sq. ft. of refrigerated
warehousing with a temperature
capability to 32 degrees. The
primary cargo handled consists of
imported bananas, plantains and
other fruits, forest products, and
other miscellaneous general cargo.
The Port of New London also
has deepwater ship handling
capabilities available at the State
Pier. The State Pier, which
recently was completely rebuilt,
provides two berths alongside a
1,000 ft. concrete pier with a 35
foot MLW draft, and dry cargo
storage warehousing. Logistec
Connecticut is the terminal
operator.
The State Pier handles general
cargo consisting primarily of
forest products, with container
services available. An area
adjacent to the State Pier is being
used by the Mashantucket
Pequots Tribe to operate the
Sassacus, a 147 foot high speed
ferry to be operated between New
London and New York City. The
Railtec Pier handles dry bulk
commodities. Ferry operations to
Block Island, Fishers Island and
eastern Long Island are conducted
at City Piers located in
downtown New London.
Bradley International Airport is
home to ten scheduled all-cargo
airlines and several other charter
operators. UPS has just completed
construction of a 230,000
sq. ft. regional hub facility on the
east side of the Airport with plans
for additional space. The Roncari
Air Cargo Terminal consists of
two adjacent terminal buildings
containing a total of 90,000 square
feet of terminal space close to the
passenger terminal. U.S. Airports
operates an 86,000 square feet
terminal used primarily by the
integrated air cargo/freight
forwarding carriers on the northwest
side of the Airport. Current
available cargo ramp space
amounts to just under 2 million
square feet.
With a 9,500 ft. runway,
Bradley International Airport is
capable of handling all passenger
and cargo aircraft, including B-
747's, the Russian built AN-225,
and the Concorde. In the early
1970's, when international
charter operations were at a
peak, approximately one thousand
nonstop transatlantic
passenger charters were operated
annually. More recently,
Panalpina - - a major international
freight forwarder - operated
up to six flights weekly with
B-747 all-cargo charters between
the U.K., Luxembourg, Mexico
and Hartford.
There are also three Foreign
Trade Zones in Connecticut
located at or near each of the
ports, and one in Windsor Locks
adjacent to Bradley International
Airport.
Passenger and Cargo Traffic
The number of passengers to
come through Bradley Airport
showed a steady increase from
1994 to 1997. A fivepercent
increase in the number of
passengers traveling through
Bradley Airport occurred from
1994 to 1996. Passenger traffic
increased one percent in 1997. It
is estimated that 1997 cargo
traffic will show no increase over 1996.
The number of new automobile
registrations processed in Connecticut rose last year
after two consecutive years of
decline. The total tally of registrations
processed by the Connecticut
Department of Motor
Vehicles (DMV) stood at 178,599,
increasing by 0.6 percent in
1997. Registration figures have
served as an economic indicator
for several decades, and are
published every month in the
Digest on page 7. This article
briefly examines what the data
really encompass and how they
have reflected employment trends
at new car dealerships and
aggregate employment trends
overall.
Definition
The DMV's new auto registrations
count is the number of
records processed by the DMV
title system during each month.
Due to varying lags in processing,
these totals do not reflect the
actual number of vehicles bought
during a month, but they do
provide a good indication of
consumer confidence as reflected
in new automobile purchases
over time. The count comprises
all new vehicles, including those
sold as dealer demonstration
models, processed during the
month that meet the following
criteria: the vehicle had no prior
state title or number; the model
year of the vehicle falls within the
current or past year; and the
vehicle was bought only through
a Connecticut dealer.
Historical Trends
Looking at the historical
trends back to 1963 (the earliest
year data are available), the
highest level of registrations was
in 1986, during the height of the
economic boom in the State. As
the table on page 4 shows, the
lowest level was seen in 1991,
with only 95,870 registrations
processed. That year, employment
dropped by 68,300, the
worst one-year job decline in 35
years. Then, from 1992 to 1994,
Connecticut experienced
a 52 percent surge in registrations
reflecting a boom in new car
sales. Accordingly, new car dealers did
well. The number of new jobs at automobile
dealerships shot up by 9.2 percent,
after losing almost 25 percent of their
employees between 1988 and 1991.
Factors that contributed to the increased
demand for new automobiles were: the combination
of record low interest
rates and the end of recession,
enabling more confident consumers
to spend on big ticket items
such as new cars; the increasing
trend towards leasing; and the
fact that there were many older
cars on the road that owners
wanted or needed to replace.
To Lead Or Not To Lead
Although the trend in registrations
in the past has signaled
impending recessions, such as in
1975 and 1989-92, there have
been false signals as well (1966-
67 and 1995-96, see Chart). It
was also a fairly good predictor of
the employment trend at new
auto dealerships in the latest
downturn. However, whether or
not the registrations data will
accurately predict future employment
turns remains to be seen.
Floor It, Connecticut!
After declining during the
1989-92 recession, employment
at automobile dealerships has
been growing for the last five
years. If the reversal in automobile
registrations last year is any
indication, and interest rates stay
low, this year may be even better
for dealers, job seekers in this
industry, new car buyers and the
Connecticut economy in general.
Commissioner James F.
Abromaitis of the Connecticut
Department of Economic and
Community Development announced
that Connecticut
communities authorized 622 new
housing units in December 1997,
a 5.6 percent increase compared
to December of 1996 when 589
were authorized.
The Department further
indicated that the 622 units
permitted in December 1997
represent an increase of 10.9
percent from the 561 units
permitted in November 1997.
The total number of permits is
up 17.4 percent, from 7,714 in
1996, to 9,054 through 1997.
"The 17.4 percent increase in
permits - the biggest increase in
eight years - suggests that the
housing sector is also enjoying the
benefits of Connecticut's economic
resurgence," Commissioner
Abromaitis said. "Of the many
recent indications that our
economy is healthy and growing,
the permit increase is certainly one
of the strongest."
Reports from municipal officials
throughout the state indicate that
Litchfield County with 60.7 percent
showed the greatest percentage
increase in December
compared to the same month a
year ago. Middlesex County
followed with a 48.4 percent
increase.
Fairfield County documented
the largest number of new,
authorized units in December
with 165. Hartford County
followed with 136 units and New
Haven County had 118 units.
Danbury led all Connecticut
communities with 29 units,
followed by North Branford with
27, and Newtown with 21.
The Connecticut leading
employment index continues
its slow and steady increase
while the coincident index has
taken a breather in the last two
months. The recent view of some
leading experts (see below), which
is also the view supported by our
coincident and leading indexes, is
that the expansion shows no sign
of ending this year. Thus, the
current expansion, which is
unusually long by historic standards,
has a strong possibility of
entering its sixth year.
The coincident index, a barometer
of current employment
activity, fell slightly for a second
month with the release of (preliminary)
November data. The
declines in the last two months
follow a two-year period of significant
upward movement in the
coincident index.
While the coincident index fell
slightly, it is still up on a yearover-
year basis.
The leading index, a barometer
of future employment activity,
continues its modest upward
trend. The leading index did
reach its peak, once again, in the
current expansion with the
release of the (preliminary)
November data.
Forecasters at the January
6th Economic Outlook Conference
in Hartford (sponsored by
the Connecticut Business and
Industry Association and the
Greater Hartford Chamber of
Commerce) painted a generally
rosy picture for the future of the
national, regional (Northeast),
and Connecticut economies.
Delos Smith (Conference Board),
Paul Getman (Regional Financial
Associates), and William
McEachern (University of Connecticut)
each projected good
economic growth in 1998. These
forecasters expected economic
growth at slightly above 2 percent,
which was down by a half
or a full percent because of the
problems in Asia. Getman was
the most optimistic, suggesting
that problems in Asia may actually
boost economic growth in the
Northeast; McEachern was least
optimistic, indicating that Smith
and Getman may have underestimated
the negative effects of
Asian situation on the national
and local economies.
In summary, the coincident
employment index rose from 85.9
in November 1996 to 92.4 in
November 1997. All four index
components continue to point in
a positive direction on a yearover-
year basis with higher
nonfarm employment, higher
total employment, a lower insured
unemployment rate, and a
lower total unemployment rate.
The leading employment index
rose from 89.8 in November 1996
to 90.8 in November 1997. All five
index components sent positive
signals on a year-over-year basis
with a lower short-duration (less
than 15 weeks) unemployment
rate, lower initial claims for
unemployment insurance, higher
total housing permits, a higher
average workweek of manufacturing
production workers, and
higher Hartford help-wanted
advertising.
Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) 461-6644,
Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) 486-3853, Storrs Campus]. Kathryn E. Parr [(860) 486-0485, Storrs
Campus] provided research support.
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