Connecticut Department of Labor's Office of Research

Labor Market Information - State of Connecticut Labor Situation

State of Connecticut Labor Situation

Last Updated: December 20, 2018

	Nonfarm jobs down by 500 in November; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%
	WETHERSFIELD, December 20, 2018 - Preliminary Connecticut nonfarm job estimates from the business payroll survey administered by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show the state lost 500 net jobs (-0.03%) in November 2018, to a level of 1,702,900, seasonally adjusted. Over the year, nonagricultural employment in the state grew by 23,000 jobs (1.4%). The October 2018 originally-released job increase of 1,500 was revised up by 1,500 jobs to a gain of 3,000 over the month. The number of the state's unemployed residents was estimated at 77,700, seasonally adjusted - a decline of 2,300 from October. As a result, Connecticut's November unemployment rate declined by one–tenth at 4.1%, seasonally adjusted. Resident employment estimates include the self-employed and residents working out of state and are determined separately from the nonfarm payroll job estimates above. The changes in labor force, residential employed, residential unemployed and the unemployment rate were considered statistically significant. "It is clear that Connecticut's labor market continues to tighten," said Andy Condon, Director of the Office of Research. "Our unemployment rate continues to trend down into full employment territory, and nearly all industry supersectors are showing annual growth. The trade and information sectors are the only exceptions."

Nonfarm Jobs Detail (business establishment survey)

Private Sector fell by 500 (-0.03%) to 1,475,000 jobs over the month in November, but added 26,300 (1.8%) seasonally-adjusted jobs over the year. The Government supersector was flat in November to a total of 227,900, with over-the-year losses now at 3,300 or -1.4%. The Government supersector includes all federal, state and local employment, including public higher education and Native American casino employment located on tribal land.

Four of the ten major industry supersectors gained employment in November, while five declined and the Government remained unchanged (0.0%, 227,900 total jobs). Construction and Mining led growing sectors with 600 net new jobs (0.1%, 64,900). Other Services added 400 jobs (0.6%, 66,000) while Financial Activities added 300 jobs (0.2%, 130,200) and Information added 200 jobs (0.6%, 31,000).

The Educational and Health Services supersector led declines in November, losing 600 jobs (-0.2%, 341,500). Professional and Business Services was next, dropping 500 jobs (-0.2%, 222,800). Manufacturing (-0.2%, 164,300) and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (-0.1%, 295,000) both saw 400 job losses. Leisure and Hospitality (-0.1%, 159,300) saw a small loss of 100.

Labor Market Information - Connecticut, Employment Sectors & United States Nonfarm Employment

		Year to Year				Month to Month				Previous Three Months
		Nov 2018	Nov 2017	Change	Rate %	Nov 2018	Oct 2018	Change	Rate %	Sep 2018	Aug 2018	Jul 2018
Graph	Follow link below for more charts & data	State of Connecticut Employment
	Connecticut Nonfarm Employment	1,702,900	1,679,900	23,000	1.4%	1,702,900	1,703,400	-500	-0.0%	1,700,400	1,701,800	1,698,500
	Private Sector	1,475,000	1,448,700	26,300	1.8%	1,475,000	1,475,500	-500	-0.0%	1,472,900	1,474,700	1,471,000

Graph	Follow link below for more charts & data	Goods Producing Industries
	Construction	64,400	58,000	6,400	11.0%	64,400	63,700	700	1.1%	62,900	62,400	61,500

	Manufacturing	164,300	161,900	2,400	1.5%	164,300	164,700	-400	-0.2%	164,400	164,000	163,600
Graph	Follow link below for more charts & data	Service Providing Industries
	Trade, Transportation and Utilities	295,000	297,600	-2,600	-0.9%	295,000	295,400	-400	-0.1%	296,200	297,100	298,100

	Information	31,000	31,100	-100	-0.3%	31,000	30,800	200	0.6%	30,400	30,700	30,800

	Financial Activities	130,200	128,000	2,200	1.7%	130,200	129,900	300	0.2%	128,800	127,700	127,100

	Professional and Business Services	222,800	216,900	5,900	2.7%	222,800	223,300	-500	-0.2%	222,300	222,800	222,300

	Educational and Health Services	341,500	335,800	5,700	1.7%	341,500	342,100	-600	-0.2%	341,800	342,800	341,400

	Leisure and Hospitality	159,300	153,500	5,800	3.8%	159,300	159,400	-100	-0.1%	159,700	161,100	160,600

	Other Services	66,000	65,300	700	1.1%	66,000	65,600	400	0.6%	65,800	65,500	65,000

	Government	227,900	231,200	-3,300	-1.4%	227,900	227,900	0	0.0%	227,500	227,100	227,500
Graph	Follow link below for more charts & data	United States Employment
	United States Nonfarm Employment	149,893,000	147,450,000	2,443,000	1.7%	149,893,000	149,738,000	155,000	0.1%	149,500,000	149,382,000	149,096,000

Connecticut has now recovered 91.3% (108,700 jobs) of the 119,100 seasonally adjusted jobs lost in the "Great Recession" (3/08-2/10). The job recovery is into its 105th month and the state needs an additional 10,400 net new jobs to reach an overall nonfarm employment expansion. The state's Private Sector continues its expansion from the recession and is at 115.0% (128,500) of the private sector jobs lost in that same employment downturn.

Connecticut's Recessionary Job Loss and Recovery March 2008 - November 2018

Connecticut's Recessionary Job Loss and Recovery March 2008 - November 2018

March
2008 February
2010 November
2018 Jobs Lost Recovered

Jobs Percent

CT Nonfarm Employment 1,713.3 1,594.2 1,702.9 -119.1 108.7 91.3%

Total Private Sector 1,458.2 1,346.5 1,475.0 -111.7 128.5 115.0%

* March 2008 was employment peak. February 2010 was employment trough. Last Updated: December 20, 2018

Connecticut Labor Market Areas (LMAs): Three of the six LMAs seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics saw job increases in November 2018 and three saw declines. The Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford LMA posted 1,400 net new positions (0.2%, 585,000). The Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk LMA (0.2%, 410,700) added 900 net new positions while the Danbury LMA (0.3%, 79,600) added 200 jobs to the total. The New Haven LMA (-0.3%, 285,200) saw the largest decline in November, dropping 1,000 jobs. The Norwich-New London-Westerly LMA shed 300 jobs (-0.2%, 132,500) while the Waterbury LMA (-0.1%, 66,800) saw a small loss of 100 jobs.

	November	October	September	August	November	Over Month		Over Year
Seasonally Adjusted data	2018 P	2018 R	2018	2018	2017	Change	Rate	Change	Rate
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk	410,700	409,800	409,000	409,000	405,200	900	0.2%	5,500	1.4%
Danbury	79,600	79,400	79,100	79,200	78,300	200	0.3%	1,300	1.7%
Hartford	585,000	583,600	581,700	580,600	575,200	1,400	0.2%	9,800	1.7%
New Haven	286,200	287,200	286,000	285,700	282,500	-1,000	-0.3%	3,700	1.3%
Norwich-New London-Westerly, RI	132,500	132,800	132,400	132,100	130,700	-300	-0.2%	1,800	1.4%
Waterbury	66,800	66,900	67,100	67,200	67,100	-100	-0.1%	-300	-0.4%
Not Seasonally Adjusted data (Non-Classified Areas, State estimated not BLS)
Enfield	45,200	45,100	45,200	44,800	45,200	100	0.2%	0	0.0%
Torrington-Northwest	33,000	33,100	33,200	33,500	32,500	-100	-0.3%	500	1.5%
Danielson-Northeast	27,000	27,000	26,900	26,800	27,100	0	0.0%	-100	-0.4%

* Less than ** Includes Native American tribal government employment					P = Preliminary		R = Revised

Note: Six major Connecticut LMAs are estimated independently from the statewide data by the BLS and cover more than 90% of the nonfarm employment in the state. Thus, estimates will not fully sum to the statewide total.

Hours and Earnings: The Private Sector sector workweek, not seasonally adjusted, averaged 33.7 hours in November 2018, down three-tenths of an hour from the same month a year ago (-0.1%). Average hourly earnings at $32.26, not seasonally adjusted, were up $1.31 (4.2%) from the November 2017 estimate ($30.95). The resultant average Private Sector weekly pay amounted to $1,087.16, up $34.86 from a year ago (3.3%).

	AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS				AVG WEEKLY HOURS				AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
	Nov		CHG	Oct	Nov		CHG	Oct	Nov		CHG	Oct
(Not seasonally adjusted)	2018	2017	Y/Y	2018	2018	2017	Y/Y	2018	2018	2017	Y/Y	2018
PRODUCTION WORKER
MANUFACTURING	$1,122.94	$1,035.00	$87.94	$1,125.90	42.6	41.4	1.2	42.2	$26.36	$25.00	$1.36	$26.68
DURABLE GOODS	1,204.45	1,090.10	114.35	1,221.63	42.5	42.4	0.1	43.0	28.34	25.71	2.63	28.41
NON-DUR. GOODS	882.61	840.62	41.99	850.40	42.7	37.9	4.8	40.0	20.67	22.18	-1.51	21.26
CONSTRUCTION	1,140.10	1,176.80	-36.70	1,194.00	38.4	40.0	-1.6	39.8	29.69	29.42	0.27	30.00

ALL EMPLOYEES
STATEWIDE
TOTAL PRIVATE	1,087.16	1,052.30	34.86	1,104.84	33.7	34.0	-0.3	34.1	32.26	30.95	1.31	32.40
GOODS PRODUCING	1,293.99	1,254.46	39.53	1,354.67	38.5	39.3	-0.8	39.3	33.61	31.92	1.69	34.47
Construction	1,194.73	1,216.03	-21.29	1,290.26	37.0	38.3	-1.3	38.7	32.29	31.75	0.54	33.34
Manufacturing	1,375.22	1,269.22	106.00	1,392.91	40.4	39.9	0.5	39.9	34.04	31.81	2.23	34.91
SERVICE PROVIDING	1,048.62	1,014.42	34.20	1,057.55	32.8	33.0	-0.2	33.1	31.97	30.74	1.23	31.95
Trade, Transp., Utilities	920.37	855.07	65.30	915.63	33.8	32.9	0.9	33.7	27.23	25.99	1.24	27.17
Financial Activities	1,762.22	1,699.78	62.44	1,763.39	36.5	37.0	-0.5	36.6	48.28	45.94	2.34	48.18
Prof. & Business Serv.	1,212.41	1,244.88	-32.48	1,253.88	33.8	34.9	-1.1	34.4	35.87	35.67	0.20	36.45
Education & Health Ser.	954.20	932.50	21.70	969.88	32.5	32.8	-0.3	32.7	29.36	28.43	0.93	29.66
Leisure & Hospitality	471.24	449.37	21.88	484.16	25.5	25.9	-0.4	26.1	18.48	17.35	1.13	18.55
Other Services	842.24	798.40	43.84	826.84	32.9	32.0	0.9	33.1	25.60	24.95	0.65	24.98

LABOR MARKET AREAS: TOTAL PRIVATE
Bridgeport-Stamford	1,171.85	1,123.24	48.60	1,190.09	33.8	33.4	0.4	34.1	34.67	33.63	1.04	34.90
Danbury	985.13	918.68	66.45	999.89	34.7	33.8	0.9	34.9	28.39	27.18	1.21	28.65
Hartford	1,131.52	1,086.01	45.51	1,150.80	34.0	34.4	-0.4	34.6	33.28	31.57	1.71	33.26
New Haven	1,047.85	1,005.67	42.18	1,072.51	33.9	33.5	0.4	33.6	30.91	30.02	0.89	31.92
Norwich-New London	815.07	841.28	-26.21	865.17	29.9	32.0	-2.1	30.8	27.26	26.29	0.97	28.09
Waterbury	936.71	874.69	62.02	936.68	34.4	34.6	-0.2	34.5	27.23	25.28	1.95	27.15

Information for the manufacturing production workweek and earnings can be found in the table section of this release under the "Hours and Earnings" data category. Current all-employee private sector hours and earnings estimates can be volatile due to fluctuating sample responses.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index declined 4.2 percent in November, offsetting increases in an array of indexes including shelter and used cars and trucks. Other major energy component indexes were mixed, with the index for fuel oil falling but the indexes for electricity and natural gas rising. The food index rose in November, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing.

The all items less food and energy index increased 0.2 percent in November. Along with the indexes for shelter and used cars and trucks, the indexes for medical care, recreation, and water and sewer and trash collection also increased. The indexes for wireless telephone services, airline fares, and motor vehicle insurance declined in November.

The all items index increased 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending November, compared to a 2.5-percent increase for the period ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.2 percent in November. The energy index increased 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending November; this was its smallest 12-month increase since the period ending June 2017. The food index rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months.

State of Connecticut Unemployment Rate vs. United States Unemployment Rate

The November 2018 unemployment rate for Connecticut is estimated at 4.1% (seasonally adjusted), down one-tenth from October 2018 and down four-tenths of a percentage point from a year ago when it was 4.5%. The US jobless rate in November 2018 was 3.7%, unchanged from October 2018.

Month	2012			2013			2014			2015			2016			2017			2018			2019
Month	CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.		CT	U.S.
Jan	8.2	8.3	0.1	8.2	8.0	-0.2	7.2	6.6	-0.6	6.1	5.7	-0.4	5.5	4.9	-0.6	4.9	4.8	-0.1	4.5	4.1	-0.4
Feb	8.2	8.3	0.1	8.1	7.7	-0.4	7.0	6.7	-0.3	6.0	5.5	-0.5	5.5	4.9	-0.6	4.9	4.7	-0.2	4.6	4.1	-0.5
Mar	8.3	8.2	-0.1	8.1	7.5	-0.6	6.9	6.7	-0.2	5.9	5.5	-0.4	5.4	5.0	-0.4	4.9	4.5	-0.4	4.5	4.1	-0.4
Apr	8.3	8.2	-0.1	8.0	7.6	-0.4	6.8	6.3	-0.5	5.8	5.4	-0.4	5.3	5.0	-0.3	4.8	4.4	-0.4	4.5	3.9	-0.6
May	8.4	8.2	-0.2	7.9	7.5	-0.4	6.7	6.3	-0.4	5.7	5.5	-0.2	5.3	4.7	-0.6	4.7	4.3	-0.4	4.5	3.8	-0.7
Jun	8.5	8.2	-0.3	7.9	7.5	-0.4	6.6	6.1	-0.5	5.7	5.3	-0.4	5.2	4.9	-0.3	4.7	4.3	-0.4	4.4	4.0	-0.4
Jul	8.5	8.2	-0.3	7.8	7.3	-0.5	6.5	6.2	-0.3	5.6	5.2	-0.4	5.1	4.9	-0.2	4.6	4.3	-0.3	4.4	3.9	-0.5
Aug	8.5	8.1	-0.4	7.8	7.2	-0.6	6.5	6.2	-0.3	5.6	5.1	-0.5	5.0	4.9	-0.1	4.5	4.4	-0.1	4.3	3.9	-0.4
Sep	8.4	7.8	-0.6	7.7	7.2	-0.5	6.4	5.9	-0.5	5.6	5.0	-0.6	5.0	5.0	0.0	4.5	4.2	-0.3	4.2	3.7	-0.5
Oct	8.4	7.8	-0.6	7.5	7.2	-0.3	6.3	5.7	-0.6	5.6	5.0	-0.6	4.9	4.9	0.0	4.5	4.1	-0.4	4.2	3.7	-0.5
Nov	8.3	7.7	-0.6	7.4	6.9	-0.5	6.3	5.8	-0.5	5.6	5.0	-0.6	4.9	4.6	-0.3	4.5	4.1	-0.4	4.1	3.7	-0.4
Dec	8.2	7.9	-0.3	7.3	6.7	-0.6	6.2	5.6	-0.6	5.6	5.0	-0.6	4.9	4.7	-0.2	4.5	4.1	-0.4

The nonfarm employment estimate, derived from a survey of businesses, is a measure of jobs in the state; the unemployment rate and labor force estimates are based on a household survey, and measure the work status of people who live in Connecticut. Overall, as the national and state economies recover, volatility in monthly numbers can be expected. Job and employment estimates are best understood in the context of their movement over several months rather than observed changes in a single month's value.

Labor Force / Residents Employed / Residents Unemployed

Based on the Local Area Unemployment Statistics model (LAUS - a statistical model using the CPS – Current Population Survey residential data), the number of Connecticut unemployed residents, seasonally adjusted, was down 2,300 from October at 77,700. Over the year, the number of the state's jobless residents declined by 8,500 (-9.9%). The state's labor force increased for the fifth month in a row by 7,300 (0.4%) over the month, and is now higher over the year (4,300, 0.2%).

November 2018 seasonally-adjusted average weekly initial unemployment claims for first-time filers in Connecticut grew by 491 claimants (16.0%) to 3,555 from October 2018, but were lower by 113 claims (-3.1%) from the November 2017 level of 3,668.

Month	2013			2014			2015			2016			2017			2018			2019
Month	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.	Labor Force	Resident Emp.	Resident Unemp.
Jan	1,866.1	1,716.9	152.2	1,873.2	1,733.0	134.5	1,910.5	1,792.1	116.4	1,890.4	1,783.6	104.2	1,923.0	1,826.6	93.9	1,909.9	1,823.2	86.8
Feb	1,862.4	1,713.9	151.0	1,876.9	1,738.6	132.3	1,909.5	1,794.1	114.5	1,892.5	1,786.1	103.3	1,925.1	1,829.1	94.0	1,908.2	1,821.2	86.9
Mar	1,860.3	1,711.4	149.9	1,880.5	1,744.6	130.2	1,907.2	1,794.9	112.6	1,894.9	1,789.1	102.2	1,925.8	1,831.1	93.7	1,904.7	1,818.4	86.3
Apr	1,860.3	1,710.4	148.9	1,883.9	1,750.3	128.3	1,903.9	1,794.6	110.7	1,897.6	1,792.6	101.1	1,925.0	1,832.2	92.7	1,901.0	1,815.2	85.8
May	1,861.7	1,711.5	147.9	1,887.0	1,755.6	126.4	1,899.8	1,793.2	108.8	1,900.6	1,796.4	100.1	1,922.9	1,832.3	91.2	1,898.5	1,813.6	84.9
Jun	1,863.4	1,713.8	147.0	1,890.5	1,760.5	124.9	1,895.3	1,791.0	107.1	1,903.9	1,800.6	99.0	1,919.9	1,831.6	89.6	1,896.5	1,812.6	83.9
Jul	1,864.6	1,716.5	146.0	1,894.4	1,765.6	123.7	1,891.2	1,788.2	105.8	1,906.9	1,804.9	97.6	1,917.0	1,830.3	88.2	1,898.5	1,815.8	82.8
Aug	1,865.0	1,718.7	144.6	1,898.6	1,770.7	122.8	1,888.1	1,785.4	105.1	1,909.7	1,809.3	96.1	1,914.3	1,828.8	87.0	1,899.2	1,818.4	80.9
Sep	1,865.0	1,720.3	142.9	1,902.7	1,775.8	121.9	1,886.3	1,783.0	104.9	1,912.2	1,813.6	94.8	1,912.8	1,827.3	86.4	1,903.5	1,823.4	80.0
Oct	1,865.5	1,722.2	140.8	1,906.2	1,780.7	120.9	1,885.9	1,781.4	104.9	1,914.6	1,817.4	93.9	1,912.0	1,826.4	86.1	1,909.3	1,829.4	80.0
Nov	1,867.1	1,724.7	138.8	1,908.7	1,785.3	119.6	1,886.8	1,780.9	105.0	1,917.2	1,820.7	93.5	1,912.3	1,826.0	86.2	1,916.6	1,838.9	77.7
Dec	1,869.7	1,728.3	136.7	1,910.2	1,789.1	118.1	1,888.5	1,781.8	104.8	1,920.2	1,823.7	93.5	1,912.6	1,826.0	86.4


	The nonfarm employment estimate, derived from a survey of businesses, is a measure of jobs in the state; the unemployment rate and labor force estimates are based on a household survey, and measure the work status of people who live in Connecticut. Overall, as the national and state economies recover, volatility in monthly numbers can be expected. Job and employment estimates are best understood in the context of their movement over several months rather than observed changes in a single month's value.

Next Connecticut Labor Situation release: Thursday, January 17, 2019 (December 2018 data)


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